That brings to mind the argument voiced by Jared Diamond in his book _Guns, Germs, and Steel_ that it is the environmental factors rather than purported human "intelligence" or kindred moral vitues (or lack thereof) are responsible for major civilization advances. I love the book because of it serious deflating effect on intellectual egos, social "darwininsm" etc.
One of the most interesting points raised by Diamond is that an early technological success can later turn into a long-term disadvantage (which is the essence of dialectical thinking anyway). He argued that the first humans who crossed the land bridge that is now the Bering straits were very successful big game hunters and thanks to their effciency as hunters they could quickly colonize the New World. However, that short-term efficiency turned to the long-term disaster, becsue they early hunters wiped off all large animals from the New World that were suitable for later domestication.
Domestication of large animals, according to Diamond, has the follwoing long-term advantages:
- is a pre-requiste for agriculture, since large animals provide traction power needed for plowing and transportation of ag goods;
- contact with domesticated animals is a source of contagius infections, which in long run, developes human immunity for communicable diseases;
- large animals (esp. horses) also provide tremendous tactical advantage in warfare (in fact, cavalry had been used in the military until the 20th century, when it was replaced by armor).
Therefore, by efficient hunting of large animals ca. 13,000 BC, early Americans suffered un-anticiapted long term disadvantages in the form belated and small-scale agriculture, lack of immunity to communicable diseases, and the absence of mobile military units.
The analogy of this line of reasoning to the computer world is difficult to miss. What appears to be a technlogical advantage may turn into a susceptibility and long-term disadvantage, if the computer systems are effectively shut down by more and more spohisticated viruses, and there is no alternative means of communication or transaction processing. In that context, the more primitive paper-and-pencil technology may be an unanticipated source of strength.
wojtek