Now here's what is really hard to figure the USDA also believes that China has as much as 44% more arable crop land than they claim to have. If this is the case then Chinese yields per hectare(2.471 American acres) is low and could be improved by very low tech means or the Chinese have already taken a huge portion of their existing cropland out of production.
The USDA also estimates that between 8% and 12% or more of the Chinese grain crop in storage is consumed by pests every year.
Just considering the above it's pretty obvious that the Chinese are and will be self sufficient in agriculture. If they improve seed quality, fertilizer use and irrigation methods or just put some money in mouse and rat traps they should be able to feed a large part of the world outside of China.
Tom
M A Jones wrote:
> Lester Brown's 1997 piece on how China won't be able to feed itself is
> archived at:
> http://www.britannica.com/bcom/magazine/article/0,5744,7155,00.html
>
> I read yesterday somewhere that if China accedes to the WTO its arable
> agriculture, wheat in partic, will be decimated by cheap imports capturing
> 30% + of the doemstic market. One of Lester Brown's assumptions is that
> world grain surpluses would soon be swallowed by Chinese demand IN EXCESS of
> its own (failing) domestic production. What's the stroty here?
>
> Mark Jones
> http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList