POLL RELEASES May 17, 2000
Americans Think Increased Trade With China Will Help U.S. Economy but Hurt Workers Expect economy and human rights in China to benefit
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Congress will vote this month on whether or not to permanently normalize trade relations with China, which would allow China to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Many members of Congress have still not decided whether to vote for or against the legislation. This is perhaps understandable given the complexity of the issue. The American public apparently recognizes this complexity as well, seeing many benefits to increased trade with China but also some more negative consequences.
The latest Gallup poll, conducted May 5-7, shows that Americans are slightly more likely to believe increased trade with China will benefit the U.S. economy than believe that it would hurt it, by a 48% to 37% margin, with 11% undecided. However, illustrating the complicated nature of the proposed increase in trade between the two nations, Americans are much more likely to believe that increased trade with China will "mostly hurt" U.S. workers (57%), as opposed to helping them (28%).
On this issue, there is not a great deal of difference between Republicans and Democrats nationwide. As far as economic growth is concerned, 47% of Republicans think increased trade will help the U.S. economy, while 39% think it will hurt it. Among Democrats, 49% think the U.S. economy will be helped and 32% think it will be hurt.
From of the standpoint of American workforce, 28% percent of Republicans think increased U.S.-China trade will help U.S. workers, while 60% think U.S. workers will be hurt. Thirty percent of Democrats expect U.S. workers will be helped, while 54% think they will be hurt.
Younger Americans seem to be most optimistic about the possibilities of increased trade with China. Fifty-nine percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 believe that the U.S. economy will benefit, which is at least ten percentage points higher than any other age group. Younger Americans are also slightly more likely to think that increased trade will help U.S. workers -- 34% believe this, a greater percentage than any other age group.
Americans See Only Benefits for China While Americans think increased trade with China will have both positive and negative effects for the United States, they generally believe that China will only benefit from a new trade partnership. For example, more than three-quarters of Americans (77%) believe that increasing trade between the U.S. and China will "mostly help" the Chinese economy, while only 9% believe it will hurt. Americans at higher income and education levels are especially likely to believe this: fully 85% of those with household incomes over $50,000, and 87% of those with college degrees, think increased trade will benefit the Chinese economy.
Americans also believe that the positive effects of increased trade are not confined to economic concerns. Despite the opinions of those who oppose the treaty, the poll shows that 47% of Americans think that increased trade will help human rights in China, while only 26% think it will hurt them (18% have no opinion). Liberals are much more inclined to think human rights in China would improve as a result of increased trade relations (56%) than are conservatives (41%). Similar -- though not as strong -- patterns emerge for Democrats (52%) and Republicans (44%).
Consistent with the above findings, the youngest segment of the American public is more optimistic on both counts, with 83% of those aged 18-29 believing that increased trade between the U.S. and China will "mostly help" the Chinese economy, and 52% believing it will help improve human rights in China.
Americans Have Not Been Following Debate Closely Although the debate has been percolating in Congress for several months, public awareness of the U.S.-China trade agreement appears to be extremely low. This is evident by the fact that only 29% of Americans claim to be following news about China and the World Trade Organization either "very" or "somewhat" closely, leaving 70% of Americans with not much exposure to the issue. The current level of attention paid to China and the WTO is among the lowest registered when compared to more than 60 other news events that Gallup has measured since 1991.
Not surprisingly, the public offers little guidance to members of Congress who have not decided how to vote on this issue. A majority of Americans -- 56% -- do not have an opinion either way about normalizing U.S.-China trade relations, with 25% in favor and 19% opposed.
Survey Methods The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,031 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 5-7, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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