China 'Short-term pain, long-term gain'

[Pacitti, Aaron (CAP, PTL)]

Might anyone out there have any info 
on the "short-term pain, long-term gain" 
argument?  

That is, if you take the conventional argument at face value: just do what
we (IMF/WB/Treas.) say today - privatize, export, etc.  It might be
miserable for a while, but eventually you will reap the rewards and become
developed.

Is there any empirical evidence of countries witnessing the long-term gains
that go along with development?  And what are those gains (if there were any
at all).

Quick point of clarification, I mean gains for non-elites.  Suharto and
others did pretty well with the loans, but did the country/economy/people?

Thanks,
Aaron