Belarus is a curious case. The statement that it has recovered to 1989 levels is not accurate. There are a lot of uncertainties about Belarusian data. But, the basic point that it has not fallen so far and that it remains relatively unchanged is essentially accurate. It certainly is in better shape than Ukraine, although there is debate about the comparison with Russia.
Another area where it has not changed that much is that it continues to have a fairly equal distribution of income, much like Slovakia in that regard. Here there is a very striking contrast with both Ukraine and Russia. It is probably the case that the "average person" in Belarus is better off economically than a similarly situated one in Russia or Ukraine.
Also, it appears that Belarus has avoided getting a large underground economy, also in contrast to Russia and Ukraine, although there are some differences of opinion on this one, with Schneider and Enste in the latest Journal of Economic Literature claiming that this sector is bigger in Belarus than in the others. My data suggests otherwise.
I think what is interesting here especially is the contrast between Ukraine and Belarus. Both are labeled by the usual IMF crowd as "unreformed" economies. But Belarus is in much better shape than is Ukraine. Barkley Rosser -----Original Message----- From: Chris Burford <cburford at gn.apc.org> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Date: Sunday, May 28, 2000 3:01 AM Subject: Note on Belarus
>The lengthy article on Putin, in Trotskyist literary style, by Alan Woods
>(co author on other subjects of Ted Grant) ends with a note on Belarus.
>
>It is worth quoting in full.
>
>Can anyone confirm or refute what is said here?
>
>>Alan Woods
>>London May 25th, 2000
>>
>>Footnote on Belarus
>>
>>In Belarus there has been hardly any change in the past ten years. Very
>>little has been privatised.
>>Belarus has therefore avoided the economic catastrophe that Russia has
>>experienced. Rates of
>>growth have been high:
>>
>> 1996: 3 percent
>> 1997: 17 percent
>> 1998: 11 percent
>> 1999: 10 percent
>>
>>As a result, while Russia (and still more the Ukraine) has regressed, the
>>economy of Belarus has
>>recovered the level of ten years ago. True, inflation has been high and
>>recently there has been
>>some decline in living standards, but nothing like the horrendous collapse
>>in Russia and other
>>ex-Soviet Republics.
>
>
>Chris Burford
>London
>
>________________________________
>
>
>At 22:26 27/05/00 -0300, you wrote:
>
>
>>Here is a good analysis on Putin from Socialist appeal.
>>Those trotskysts guys make some interesting analysis,
>>althought they are too much orthodox to my taste (all
>>those articles end by invinting left wing parties to
>>emulate what Lenin and Trotsky did in 1917..)
>>
>>Putin, Rasputin and Kerensky
>>http://www.marxist.com/Russia/putin500.html
>>
>> Alexandre Fenelon
>
>