On the one hand they were better equipped and had more support from outsiders (USSR and PRC, off and on, oscillating between the two). OTOH, now they are more desperate, especially given the disappearance of the outside support.
No, I am not forecasting any such invasion. What is more striking about all that muscle-bound military, if weak underneath, is what a drain it must be on the pathetic economy.
There have been some recent moves to "capitalist roading" in the DPRK. But it remains the case that even now the DPRK as a system looks more like a pure version of the classic Stalinist model than did even any regime in the world in the late 1980s, with the possible exception of Albania.
Another factor that would/will make any move to (re)unification extremely difficult is the reportedly extreme isolation of the North Koreans who simply do not know what is going on in South Korea, much less the rest of the world. At least the East Germans could watch West German TV and had a much better idea, if somewhat distorted, of what they were dealing with and what to expect. The gap was nowhere near as great as it is in Korea. And they still have not resolved all the problems in Germany (and maybe never will). Barkley Rosser -----Original Message----- From: Yoshie Furuhashi <furuhashi.1 at osu.edu> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Date: Tuesday, May 30, 2000 7:17 PM Subject: Re: No Megalomania in Capitalism (was Re: seth & defusingkoreatensions)
>Barkley says:
>
>>Of course the northern leaders
>>would like to unify on their terms, but that is not
>>likely without a military conquest, also not likely.
>
>I suspect that North Korean leaders too are looking for unification
>on capitalist terms, given recent policy directions. North Korea,
>despite its image of willful & mysterious isolationism that
>predominates the Western mass media coverage and the minds of
>LBO-talkers, has been courting foreign investment, encouraging
>tourism, and otherwise traveling the capitalist road, just as China &
>(to a much lesser extent) Cuba have. It just has been much less
>successful in its attempt to do so, I think.
>
>> In the south it is clear that many yearn for unification.
>>But, there is also considerable trepidation and caution.
>>They are struck by how hard the German unification
>>turned out to be. The official ROK Ministry of Finance
>>plan for unification involves not linking the currencies at
>>par, limiting migration from the north to the south,
>>renationalizing land in the north and then reselling it or
>>leasing it quickly, and borrowing from abroad to cover the
>>costs involved. Those costs were estimated for this plan
>>(in 1993) to be US $980 billion. No wonder there is trepidation.
>
>I'm pleased to hear that South Korean officials, unlike Dennis R.,
>have learned a lesson from Germany and are approaching the question
>of unification cautiously. The plan sounds terrible & terribly
>costly, though. I think that in Korea it takes a democratic man like
>Kim Dae Jung, who doesn't govern in the style of military dictators
>favored by the West in the past, to make the masses, of North &
>South, swallow the costs.
>
>> BTW, the DPRK has about twice as many men under arms
>>as the ROK, about twice as many tanks and combat aircraft,
>>and far more helicopters and submarines. Of course, the
>>quality and support of all this stuff is way behind that in the
>>ROK. OTOH, Seoul, fifth largest city in the world, is only 30
>>miles from the border. Would not be hard to grab it quickly
>>and sue for a favorable deal.
>
>Well, Seoul was in the same location 20 years ago, too. Why didn't
>it occur to North Koreans to attempt an easy grab when North Korea
>was in a better economic shape? They must be really, really stupid!
>
>Yoshie
>
>