>90% chance he'll lose the popular vote; 75% chance he'll lose the
>electoral college...
But that is not necessarily the "Nader effect." It could well be the effect of the US population shifting to the right, and having a choice between a GOPster and a wannabe GOPster, choosing the real thing.
The breakdown of voting preference by income included in Doug's original posting (see below) seems to support that hypothesis. There seem to be a direct correlation between preference for Bush and income level - the the more once makes the more likely is one to prefer BUsh. Th emore affluent the population, th emore conservative its political preferences.
wojtek
Gore Bush Nader
total 43 47 5
$75,000 and over 38 55 4 $50,000 and over 40 53 4 $30,000 - $50,000 43 49 4 $20,000 - $30,000 46 42 7 Less than $20,000 57 34 5