>Well, folks, it now seems that -- contrary to all the
>premature prognostications -- the Supremes are going
>to sing. Anyone still willing to make bets about the
>particular tune they will belt out? Or have we all
>learned that the only thing which is predictable in
>this episode is the unpredictable?
Nah, all the SC decided to hear the details of the arguments. I'll still lay down a hard bet that they affirm the Fl Supreme Court.
One reason for them to take the case is actually a public-minded one. Affirming the Fl SC decision will actually create a more bipartisan legitimacy on the ultimate outcome of the election than merely denying cert, so that would be one reason for even the liberal judges in their legitimation of the system capacity to take the case.
More deviously, Scalia or Rehnquist might want to take the case, affirm the Fl SC, but write a really tough federalist opinion to create precedent to tightly restrict liberal federal judges from intervening in local elections. Like the ACLU defending the Klan to establish 1st Amendment precedent, the rightwing judges might see affirming a decision on behalf of Gore as a great way to create ironclad federalist precendent.
The only wild card is the federal statute over the rules of elections. That might create reason for the Court to rule the Fl SC violated federal law in moving the deadline for certification around, although that has nothing to do with the hand counts. But since Gore won't get a majority before certification, that issue will be largely moot by the time they have the hearing. He will be onto the contest phase of the Florida election law, which is well established and is no different from past elections, so no violation of the federal statute.
All of this will have to fit within the timelines for electing federal electors, but that seems quite doable.
Gore still needs to get the actual votes out of Miami-Dade, but the evidence from the initial count indicates the votes are there. If he is willing to push forward on the contest phase, and it looks like he is, then it look like Gore will still likely pull this out in the end. A bloody, nasty fight, but I still put the smart money on Gore at the end of the day.
-- Nathan Newman