O Canada

Marco Anglesio mpa at the-wire.com
Thu Nov 30 13:13:02 PST 2000


On Wed, 29 Nov 2000, Michael Pollak wrote:
> > government was returned. Now, there is time for the left to present a
> > decent candidate - possibly Allan Rock, former Minister of Justice and
> > Attorney General, present Minister of Health, or possibly Brian Tobin,
> > present Minister of Industry (I think - he only just resigned the
> > premiership of Newfoundland).
>
> I got the impression from the papers that a decisive victory would ensure
> that Chretien handed power over to his finance minister, Paul Martin, in
> mid-term. Why does it increase the chances of a successful left
> challenge?

I think that it does by deflating the credibility of Martin's caucus supporters. How can you credibly argue that it's time for a turn to the right when a turn to the left earned you a crushing majority government? There's no urgency within the government or the party to do anything but consolidate its gains and go on with the daily business of governing.

A slim victory would have almost guaranteed Chretien not standing for his mandatory leadership review in 2 years, or even resigning outright. Martin would have had ample time to gather supporters in cabinet and in caucus.

Unfortunately, as it stands, Martin's supporters have been slowly removed or moved to more junior positions in cabinet. My own MP is among them (and good riddance.) I daresay that, unless Martin is succcessful in bridging the rift between himself and Chretien (and it seems that he's been partly successful), the trend will continue and Martin will find himself with little cabinet support for a leadership bid.

Chretien, having won 3 consecutive majority governments (and therefore tying the all-time leaders, William Lyon Mackenzie King and Wilfrid Laurier (Chretien's personal idol)) might wish to resign prior to the end of his term. He said something along those lines towards the end of the campaign. That doesn't necessarily mean that he will. Even if he does he is probably powerful enough within the party to, if not name a chosen successor, at least give a significant boost.

It's a real shame that Lloyd Axworthy declined to run for re-election. He would have made a fine PM in the Trudeau mold - unfortunately, unelectable in this day and age, but a fine PM none the less.

In other news, the knives are out for the Canadian Alliance leader, Stockwell Day. It seems that fortune is not kind to losers.

Marco

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> Marco Anglesio | What upsets me is not that you <
> mpa at the-wire.com | lied to me, but that from now <
> http://www.the-wire.com/~mpa | on I can no longer believe you. <
> | --Nietzsche <
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