Bear market? (who knows?)

Mikalac Norman S NSSC MikalacNS at NAVSEA.NAVY.MIL
Wed Oct 11 05:05:50 PDT 2000

i follow (News & Media/full coverage/business stock markets/US markets - extended list. click any "chart") where i can follow and compare all the charts over different time periods - from 1 day to forever - all indexed to start at a common point which makes comparisons extremely easy.

although NASDAQ has taken a tumble in the last year, if you take the last 2 year period and compare it with the other charts, you will see that it is still the best performer. compare it over shorter periods and it looks worse than the others because it went thru the roof in the year before, but this year it is tumbling farther than the others. wouldn't be surprised if it ends up where it started: same level as S&P and Dow (see 5 year trend and moving averages), but don't place your bets on my expertise. almost none of the markets have made any money in the last 12 months (indices are at same levels).

comparing different indices over different time periods makes for more humility in one's perception. for example, i'm trying to decide when to invest my new Nepalese wife's earnings into Vanguard's S&P 500 indexed mutual fund where i'm looking for a bottom, but i don't see one.

as for investing per our precocious Australian's revolutionary market cycle theory, keep in mind that those folks look at everything upside down.

norm --------------------------- I'm a bit curious as to why there hasn't been any discussion of the recent NASDAQ sell-off. Perhaps it has taken a back seat to the news out of Serbia and Israel. But I want to know if anyone think this is the start of a sustained bear market.


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