Bear market? (who knows?)

Rob Schaap rws at comedu.canberra.edu.au
Wed Oct 11 09:58:27 PDT 2000


Hi again,


>cycle theory: if oil prices had stayed low, the present dip may not have not
>occurred this year and your theory would have gone the way of so many
>others. market history, like ALL history, may be just a random walk, as
>greater people than i have surmised.

I take your point, of course - but oil wasn't nearly as high as it is now two years ago, and that's when the stock boom effectively came to a stop (a pretty dramatic moment when you look at the heady six years which led up to it) - after all, it's been bouncing on 10000 ever since. So let's remember that line about history ultimately repeating itself as farce, eh? Certainly a lot of people have been trying awfully hard of late to reproduce the unchecked and speculative environment of '29 ...

Were I you, I'd still keep the beloved's hard-earned under the mattress for a week or two.

Back to those essays.

... I swear the ones in my in-pile are reproducing ...

Cheers, Rob.



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