Bear market? (who knows?)

Mikalac Norman S NSSC MikalacNS at NAVSEA.NAVY.MIL
Wed Oct 11 09:33:19 PDT 2000


i agree that the charts augur bad times ahead. of course, on WS, it's the time for "bargains", "strong buy", etc.; have to put a positive spin on bad news to keep the revenues rolling in.

however, because my wife was disappointed in coming to the US that "the streets aren't paved with gold", she has reconciled herself to becoming rich the more mundane Horatio Alger way. keeps nagging me to invest her wages, so i have to do something just to get her off my back.

cycle theory: if oil prices had stayed low, the present dip may not have not occurred this year and your theory would have gone the way of so many others. market history, like ALL history, may be just a random walk, as greater people than i have surmised. take anything complicated, carve it up to a specific ethical taste and voila, a satisfying "trend" can be seen. radicals and reactionaries beware.

(norm, beware too when you start sounding like a philosopher.)

norm

----------------------------- G'day Norman,


>as for investing per our precocious Australian's revolutionary market cycle
>theory, keep in mind that those folks look at everything upside down.

Would that it were so, mate! I've just taken a peek at that Yahoo! site of yours and this morning's trading would look a lot nicer upside down. I see the new economy is leading the way ... IBM, Intel, Nokia and Ericcson are copping it and Lucent has just followed the example set by Intel, Dell, and Apple and projected a significant profit plunge - oh, and I see and Merrill-Lynch has just informed our site proprietor that it 'could have a tough time going forward' (Yahoo's answer to that is that they're now a 'strong buy' ... ). Finance (led by (JPM) is teetering nicely, and punters aren't sure the fabled American consumer is gonna keep on keeping on; retail's heading south for the winter, too.

Tokyo's at an 18-month low. The Poms are nervous, too (I think their international football team is sapping their morale).

It's all a bit like the week leading up to 101987 so far ...

Good thing we're bound to get up to 36000 after this hiccough, eh?

Cheers, Rob.



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