--- Rob Schaap <rws at comedu.canberra.edu.au> wrote: >
>
> > ... estimating how the duration of unemployment
> affects
> >chances of getting a job. Heckman is also a leader
> of applied
> >research in these areas."
>
> Let me guess ... the chances diminish, right?
>
>
> >"Prior to McFadden's contributions, empirical
> studies of such choices
> >lacked a >foundation in economic theory.
>
> Never mind the foundation it has in the bleedin'
> obvious ...
No really fair, I think. All sorts of things are
bleedin' obvious -- I could probably think of three or
four if you gave me a week, but you can't include
everything in your models. So you abstract from the
ones which look most difficult, and hope that ignoring
them doesn't mess things up too badly. Blokes like
Heckman and McFadden come along and prove that various
common simplifying assumptions in fact *do* fuck
things up, too badly, and they kick the whole
profession out of the habit of using whole classes of
wrong and damaging models (more likely, they kick this
class of models downstairs to the ghetto of ideologues
and think tank bunnies like John Lott and his ilk (ulk
ulk))
>
> ... so empirical research is finally getting to the
> stage where it can come
> to agreement with the bleedin' obvious, eh? Well,
> we shouldn't mock. It's
> found the otherwise plenty of times before.
Neoclassical economists have only changed the world; the important thing is to describe it.
>
> Wish they could tell me why I keep sending babble to
> LBO when I've other
> things to do ...
>
Apropos of which, I forwarded your theory to Nick
Glydon, the UK's number one technical analyst, who
pronounced it "interesting" and said he'd get back to
me. You may be launching that hedge fund yet ...
though my previous get-rich-quick schemes such as male
lactation and the Unemployable Anarchist Employment
Agency came to grief, I feel that it's different this
time, and we'll all get rich, quick.
d^2
> Cheers,
> Rob.
>
>
>
>
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