>On Democracy Now, Michael Moore says that probable voters does not include
>many young people -- because they did not vote before. As a result, Nader
>is seriously undercounted.
>Is that true?
Could well be, but I couldn't get the AAPOR people to answer this question. "Likely voter" algorithms are based on stated intentions, demographics, and past voting behavior, so if Nader draws in a lot of first-time voters - because of age or previous abstention - then they may well be undercounting him. On the other hand, third party candidates tend to fade as election day nears.