Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from www.gallup.com

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Sat Oct 21 10:54:13 PDT 2000

michael at ecst.csuchico.edu wrote:

>On Democracy Now, Michael Moore says that probable voters does not include
>many young people -- because they did not vote before. As a result, Nader
>is seriously undercounted.
>Is that true?

Could well be, but I couldn't get the AAPOR people to answer this question. "Likely voter" algorithms are based on stated intentions, demographics, and past voting behavior, so if Nader draws in a lot of first-time voters - because of age or previous abstention - then they may well be undercounting him. On the other hand, third party candidates tend to fade as election day nears.


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