Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from www.gallup.com

[Tom Lehman]

There are some big missing pieces in this years election.  For example,
Hagelin the reform candidate isn't on the Texas ballot, and, as I posted
earlier the reform movement leadership in Texas has endorsed Nader.

I don't have a clue if Nader has the money to follow through and exploit this
endorsement.  Contacting all of the "reformers" in Texas would cost serious
dollars.  Big state, lots of people.

Tom

Doug Henwood wrote:


> michael at ecst.csuchico.edu wrote:
>
> >On Democracy Now, Michael Moore says that probable voters does not include
> >many young people -- because they did not vote before.  As a result, Nader
> >is seriously undercounted.
> >
> >Is that true?
>
> Could well be, but I couldn't get the AAPOR people to answer this
> question. "Likely voter" algorithms are based on stated intentions,
> demographics, and past voting behavior, so if Nader draws in a lot of
> first-time voters - because of age or previous abstention - then they
> may well be undercounting him. On the other hand, third party
> candidates tend to fade as election day nears.
>
> Doug