-----Original Message----- From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Tom Lehman Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2000 1:24 PM To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Subject: Re: Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from www.gallup.com
There are some big missing pieces in this years election. For example, Hagelin the reform candidate isn't on the Texas ballot, and, as I posted earlier the reform movement leadership in Texas has endorsed Nader.
I don't have a clue if Nader has the money to follow through and exploit this endorsement. Contacting all of the "reformers" in Texas would cost serious dollars. Big state, lots of people.
Tom
Doug Henwood wrote:
> michael at ecst.csuchico.edu wrote:
>
> >On Democracy Now, Michael Moore says that probable voters does not
include
> >many young people -- because they did not vote before. As a result,
Nader
> >is seriously undercounted.
> >
> >Is that true?
>
> Could well be, but I couldn't get the AAPOR people to answer this
> question. "Likely voter" algorithms are based on stated intentions,
> demographics, and past voting behavior, so if Nader draws in a lot of
> first-time voters - because of age or previous abstention - then they
> may well be undercounting him. On the other hand, third party
> candidates tend to fade as election day nears.
>
> Doug