Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from www.gallup.com

Tom Lehman TLehman at lor.net
Sat Oct 21 12:04:28 PDT 2000

Yep 'er. This endorsement of Nader by the leadership of the reform movement could take a bite out of Bush in Texas and other places too...including Ohio.

Take a peek: http://www.kryo.com/green/nader/rwytvg.jpg


Steve Perry wrote:

> speaking of hagelin, has anyone explored the question of how perot wound up
> in bed with the maharishi? somehow i can't imagine ross in the lotus
> position, bouncing up and down on a mat. if i'm wrong i'd be interested in
> seeing some video of it.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
> [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Tom Lehman
> Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2000 1:24 PM
> To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
> Subject: Re: Fwd: Latest Presidential Election Numbers from
> www.gallup.com
> There are some big missing pieces in this years election. For example,
> Hagelin the reform candidate isn't on the Texas ballot, and, as I posted
> earlier the reform movement leadership in Texas has endorsed Nader.
> I don't have a clue if Nader has the money to follow through and exploit
> this
> endorsement. Contacting all of the "reformers" in Texas would cost serious
> dollars. Big state, lots of people.
> Tom
> Doug Henwood wrote:
> > michael at ecst.csuchico.edu wrote:
> >
> > >On Democracy Now, Michael Moore says that probable voters does not
> include
> > >many young people -- because they did not vote before. As a result,
> Nader
> > >is seriously undercounted.
> > >
> > >Is that true?
> >
> > Could well be, but I couldn't get the AAPOR people to answer this
> > question. "Likely voter" algorithms are based on stated intentions,
> > demographics, and past voting behavior, so if Nader draws in a lot of
> > first-time voters - because of age or previous abstention - then they
> > may well be undercounting him. On the other hand, third party
> > candidates tend to fade as election day nears.
> >
> > Doug

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