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LA TIMES New Coalitions Forged in an Upbeat L.A.
By MATEA GOLD, Times Staff Writer
Antonio Villaraigosa pulled support from across lines of class and race in Tuesday's election, marrying substantial support in the Westside and the San Fernando Valley with his base on the Eastside.
James K. Hahn won a strong majority of the black vote, and a large share of elderly voters, doing well in areas of the city that were won by other candidates who are now out of the race.
Both men, however face the difficult task of trying to cobble together a majority at a time when the electorate is shifting dramatically. This year, the number of white voters dropped to 52% from 72% in 1993, the last open mayoral race. The number of Latino voters steadily increased, from 8% to 21%, according to an exit poll conducted by The Times. The number of black and Asian voters remained fairly stable, at 14% and 4% respectively.
The findings come from a Times survey of 2,930 voters questioned as they were leaving their polling places Tuesday. The poll, under the direction of Susan Pinkus, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
In some ways, Hahn and Villaraigosa were propelled into the runoff by efforts to revive Mayor Tom Bradley's multiethnic coalition. But both face substantial challenges as they look ahead to June.
Hahn, while holding on to his base in the largely black areas of south Los Angeles, will be forced to fight for the growing Latino electorate that has buttressed his rival. He will also need to rev up supporters after his once front-running campaign stalled in the closing weeks before Tuesday's election.
Villaraigosa's cross-town coalition between Latinos and Jews remains untested in a two-man race, and he faces significant challenges in expanding his support throughout the city.
The strong performances Tuesday by Villaraigosa and Hahn came at a time of relative calm and optimism in the city, and reflects a potential shift in the voting coalitions that have always defined success in Los Angeles elections.
"It's a new time for L.A. and reflects a new type of politics, one in which the bases are shifting," said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A.
The Times exit poll underscored the moves each man must take to succeed June 5.
Villaraigosa, who was able to win strong support across ethnic, income and geographic lines, will have to expand his appeal beyond liberals and moderates to conservative whites.
"No doubt there is a significant number of progressive-minded voters in Los Angeles," said City Councilman Mark Ridley-Thomas, who has remained neutral in the race, ". . . but whether or not it ultimately will prevail is the question."
Hahn will have to attract the voters who sided with the more conservative candidates--particularly Republican businessman Steve Soboroff and Councilman Joel Wachs.
Paradoxically, the fate of two candidates whose support is built on ethnic communities could be decided by conservative whites, a large majority of whom turned to Soboroff in the first phase of the race.
Those conservative white voters, along with Westside Jews, helped put Mayor Richard Riordan into office in 1993, rejecting City Councilman's Mike Woo's attempt to forge a multiracial coalition.
This time, those voters are more inclined to go to Hahn. The city attorney won less than a fifth of white conservatives Tuesday, while Villaraigosa got only a tiny share.
"Villaraigosa has to prove to people who regard him as a Latino candidate that he's a much more ecumenical person and can represent many more interests in Los Angeles beyond Latinos, labor and the left wing," said Bryce Nelson, a journalism professor at USC's Annenberg School of Communication.
Still, there was room for Villaraigosa to expand. Whites were significantly more divided this year than in the past two elections, with sizable shares going to each of four candidates. Villaraigosa won the largest number, getting almost a third of white voters.
Villaraigosa also benefited Tuesday from the strong role of Jewish voters, who make up a third of the white vote this year, compared with more than a fifth in 1993. Liberals and Jewish voters in the Valley helped him achieve a surprising first-place finish there, according to the exit poll.
In fact, the former Assembly speaker was able to garner strong support in almost every demographic group, coming in first among every income level and in every part of the city except the south, the bastion of Hahn's black support.
Villaraigosa's voters appeared to embrace his message of uniting the city, with the largest share of his supporters citing his dedication to a multicultural city as their top factor in voting for him.
But although Villaraigosa's support stretched from the Westside to the Eastside, the city electorate remained significantly balkanized, signaling the challenge that both candidates face as they try to translate their standing Tuesday into a victory in June.
Most African Americans voted for Hahn and less than a fifth for Villaraigosa, despite his strong push in that community. An overwhelming number of Latinos backed Villaraigosa. And a majority of conservative whites went for Soboroff.
Those divisions indicate that large numbers of Los Angeles voters still vote in blocs determined by their ethnicity and race.
For Hahn, the shifts in the electorate present a new terrain for him to traverse as he tries to lock down the legendary Bradley coalition.
An examination of his backers shows that the city attorney was able to get into the runoff partly on the strength of support among African Americans in the south part of the city, who hold fond memories of his father, the longtime county supervisor. He won the a third of the Asian vote, the largest share of any candidate, but less than a fifth of the white vote.
Relying on support that was expected to go to him, Hahn must now prove he can go beyond the anticipated.
"Hahn has to demonstrate that he has some new ideas and that he is more than his father's son," USC's Nelson said.
Bill Carrick, a Hahn strategist, said he would be making a push among white voters that were inclined to back Villaraigosa or Soboroff. "Now the challenge is to broaden beyond our base to the Valley and the Westside where he's done well in two-person races in the past," Carrick said.
But part of Hahn's message resonated Tuesday: Almost half of his voters cited his experience as the greatest influence on their support for him.
Tuesday also was the first opportunity Los Angeles has had to take stock of itself in a time not defined by an all-consuming crisis, and voters seemed to reject the formulation that carried Riordan into office in the middle of a recession and racial strife.
Voters, the exit poll showed, have dramatically shifted in mood since the last time there was an open battle for the mayor's office. Indeed, voters went to the polls with a sunny outlook about their city. Almost two-thirds of voters said things in Los Angeles are going well now, as opposed to 19% who felt that way eight years ago.
That change in tone hurt the candidacy of Soboroff, who attempted to model his campaign after Riordan's message that he was a businessman outside traditional government who would usher in an era of fiscal toughness.
But this year, only a handful of voters cited "outsider" as an attribute that influenced their vote.
"This election says that when things are going OK, it's not the moment for an outsider," said Raphael Sonenshein, a political scientist at Cal State Fullerton and author of a book on ethnic coalitions in Los Angeles.
"Voters are saying Los Angeles is a different place than it was in 1993 and it's time to move on. As a result, they picked two veteran Democratic officeholders: the locally experienced guy, and the guy who wants to do exciting things."
The mood of the city promises to be a major factor in a race that, so far, has not been defined by one prominent issue. A shift in the economy or a spread of the energy crisis into Los Angeles could dramatically affect the prospects of the two remaining contenders.
In the end, the lack of any dominant issues makes the election a "very fascinating test of political strength," said Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster.
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A Changed Electorate
White:
April 1993: 68%
April 2001: 52%
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Jewish
April 1993: 16%
April 2001: 17%
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Non-Jewish
April 1993: 52%
April 2001: 35%
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Latino
April 1993: 8%
April 2001: 21%
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Black
April 1993: 18%
April 2001: 14%
* * *
Asian
April 1993: 4%
April 2001: 4%
* * *
Other
April 1993: 2%
April 2001: 9%
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