Chris
At 19/04/01 18:05 +0100, you wrote:
>A bit of an update on the "Schaap indicator", first advanced on
>this list in October 2000.
>
>http://nuance.dhs.org/lbo-talk/0010/0654.html
>
>On Oct 11 2000, with the NASDAQ composite at 3168.49, Rob
>wrote:
>
>"I could no doubt sell it for millions, but I'm a good lefty,
>so I'm gonna let you in on it for nuthin'. It's called the Rob
>Schaap 350% theorem. It's called that, but the beauty of it is
>that's also all there is to it. According to my rough
>scrawlings, every boom cranks the market up 350%, and then
>unwinds it a good way in a hurry."
>
>Well ..... if we take the local low point of the NASDAQ on 08
>October 1998 as a base (1419.2), this would project a high of
>1419 * 3.5 = 4966.5.
>
>The NASDAQ topped out on 11 Mar 2000 at 5048.2, only 1.6% above
>Rob's target; by following the Schaap indicator you'd only have
>missed 1.6% of the whole movement. Obviously, since Rob was
>only looking at the Dow, he only told us about the indicator in
>October, by which time the NASDAQ had already fallen by 37.2%.
>However, by following the implicit sell call at 3168, you'd
>have missed a further 48.3% loss, taking you to the recent low
>of 1638.8. Even if you'd decided not to close out the short at
>this price (given that Rob was ambiguous about his re-entry
>signal), you'd still be 32.9% better off by following his
>advice.
>
>Any further investigation results to report, guru?
>
>d^2
>
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