All multi-variate modeling used in science is conjectural. This stems, above all, from the mathematical properties of such models i.e. difficulty in finding a unique solution to the systems of equations that form such models. The iterative process involved in solving such systems finds solutions that fit a pre-determined range of error, but that does not mean that other, totally different sets of solutions withing even narrower margin of error do not exist. Only econmists are cocksure that their models have unique solutions (for a good conceptual critique of modeling see Paul Ormerod, _The death of economics_).
The problem here is not the conjectural/probabilistic nature of scientific models used in this or that field, but the decision rule known as the Pascal's wager. The argument can be summarised as follows: you can either (i) sacrifice uncertain but potentially great future benefits for more certain but rather mediocre short-term gains, or (ii) do the other way around. Pascal's choice as well as those of the enviros is the latter, Bushies and their willing and accidental co-conspirators opt for the former.
The bottom line is that the solution to the Pascal's wager that underlies the enviro debate cannot be solved rationally - it necessarily involves a value judgment that puts different weights to more certain but mediocre gains or less certain but potentially glamorous future.
>As I see it, the 'profound changes that the environmental movement has
>wrought on the left side of the political coin' are for the worse, not
>the better. Certainly any philosophy that seeks to demote the interests
>of humanity to some 'spiritual' value are generally speaking alienated
>religious crap.
Lefty movements have always been infested with various strands of messianism, utopianism, eschatology, escapism, and spiritualism. Enviros are no different.
>More than that, the outlook that collapses the contrasting views of
>historical materialism on the one hand and capitalist growth on the
>other, is the outlook of the embittered petit bourgeois, who feels that
>both classes are closing in on him. This is the guy that signed up for
>Hitler, Poujade and Huey Long.
That is an old canard. As I recall, empirical analyses of the class backround of Hitler's supporters show that they were drawn not just from small shopkeepers but from all social classes, especially government employees.
wojtek