the pipeline theory

Hakki Alacakaptan nucleus at superonline.com
Fri Dec 14 13:57:36 PST 2001


I'm not sure that this will subvert the Russians in any significant way. Their alternative pipeline routes all run up against two big hurdles: The Turkish straits and the saturated Western market. If they can wrangle the loans for a cut in the Afghan pipeline - having, thanks to Dubya, finally gained a strategic foothold in Kabul - they can make it big.

Russian armor had a major part in winning the land war in the north and Putin's insistence on an immediate land assault gave Dubya this great Christmas present of an unhoped-for early victory. That's a lot of Brownie points for Russia. Added to that, Putin has been undercutting OPEC prices, thus supporting the West's economic recovery. He's also been extremely accommodating re the US ABM treaty violations and the present unilateral annulment. His economy is doing well, too. So I don't see why US banks would deny him what he needs to cash in on the pipeline deal.

Hakki

-----Original Message----- From: Thomas Seay

So, my question is what is Russia getting out of the deal of joining the US Alliance? If we agree with this article then there is at least a possibility that the pipelines might be built (thus subverting the Rusians economically), and US just declared it intended to dump SALT aggreements and build the Missile Defense Shield.

What are the Russians getting out of the deal...if anyting?

Thomas --- Ian Murray <seamus2001 at attbi.com> wrote:
> [link at bottom]
>
> BUSINESS & ECONOMICS December 13, 2001
> TALIBAN DEFEAT REVIVES DEBATE ON TRANS-AFGHAN
> PIPELINE
> Igor Torbakov: 12/12/01


>
> The defeat of the Taliban appears to be reviving a
> debate about
> pipeline construction in Afghanistan that would
> widen international
> access to Central Asia's vast energy resources. A
> few observers argue
> that pipelines might speed Afghanistan's
> reconstruction. However,
> others say that an attempt to establish Afghanistan
> as a transit hub
> for energy exports could provoke a collision of
> interests among key
> power brokers in the region.



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