Democrats make nice

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Mon Jan 8 06:26:48 PST 2001


pms wrote:


>This is a cool chart
>
>http://www.sandspring.com/charts/cdj010501.html
>
>Did the 1929 dealy have this kind of 5 wave action? Is this that
>Fabrioni-something or other, guy?

Fibonacci, you mean. This 5-wave stuff is "Elliott wave" analysis, which Robert Prechter made famous during the 1980s. (It's named after Ralph Elliott, and 1930s accountant who thought he'd discovered the key to speculative markets: moves within a long-term trend have a 5-wave structure, and countertrend moves, a 3-wave structure.) Starting in the late 1970s or early 1980s, Prechter claimed that the U.S. stock market would have a great bull run, culminating at 3686 (which he based on some Fibonacci multiple of something or other), and then it would collapse like it had never collapsed before. Prechter thought the U.S. was completing the fifth and last upwave of its Grand Supercycle since 1789, and something like tne end of civilization would soon be upon us. So the 1987 crash looked like the big turning point to him. When it wasn't, Prechter largely disappeared (though not completely: <http://www.elliottwave.com/>).

Doug



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list