negating non-intervention

[Michael Pollak]

On Mon, 1 Jan 2001 Max Sawicky wrote:

> No question the stage is set for defense spending increases. In fact
> it's starting to look like the raison d'etre of the Bushites. But I
> don't think this necessarily means more intervention. The great thing
> about missile defense is, if we don't have it, we're in danger and
> need it, and if we do have it and nothing happens, thank god we have
> missile defense.

But with the Congress narrowly divided, making the passage of
controversial programs more difficult; and with the Republicans focussed
even more on tax cuts than they are on missile defense; isn't there a need
for some threat to justify spending gazzillions when there are no rogue
nations left in the world that have any missiles that could reach us?  Or
do you think they could just take it from gazzillions devoted to debt
paydown and nobody will notice?

Not to sound like George Friedman, but my pet fear, I have to admit, is
not intervention so much as heightened military tensions with China.  If
Rice has an idea in her head, it's that: contain China.  China also
happens to be the one country in the world that could actually threaten us
with missiles that could actually be stopped.  Protecting Taiwan, which
has warmed the cockles of the right since before the cold war, is the only
part of that war still left. They'd love to put a sea-based missile shield
around it, i.e., around China.  And as the last couple of years have
shown, anti-China feelings can easily warm the popular heart as well.

A safer option would be to make North Korea into a rogue again and use
that as the excuse.  But that looks implausible at the moment.  A third is
to support remilitarization in Japan.  That would produce the requisite
rise.

If Congress will simply fork over the gazillions without demanding proof
that we're in danger, then none of this will be necessary.  But I'm afraid
they will ask for it.  In which, case, one way or another, they'll get it.

> Likewise with Rice, there is a mindset that could justify anything, or
> nothing.

Point well put and well taken.  I guess all those New Year's predictions
columns that I thought I was avoiding have addled my mind by eggmosis.

Michael

__________________________________________________________________________
Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com