AIDS: Africa, Polio Vaccine, Kaposi Sarcoma

[Brad DeLong]

>In the first place, has it not
>>  struck you that forecasting is difficult?
>
>You are right about that. So why all the scare numbers? Why not say, 
>"there are ways of fighting this, here is what they are, and 
>projections won't help anybody because they will just scare people 
>and if people are careful, they need not be frighteneed."

Perhaps because projections are inherently that--projections of an 
uncertain future? Perhaps because sometimes the projections will be 
high and sometimes they will be low? It looks like almost everyone in 
the mid-1980s thought there would be more HIV infections by now in 
the US than is the case, and also that almost everyone in the 
mid-1980s did not expect as many HIV infections by now in Africa as 
is the case.

I cannot understand why anyone would claim that people should *not* 
be frightened of a deadly disease that was then badly understood (and 
that is now not well understood).

Brad DeLong