Yoshie asked:
> How will India intervene in this development?
>
Here is what Li Onesto said about this in the latest Revolutionary Worker: Full text at: http://www.rwor.org/a/v23/1100-99/1107/nepal_royals.htm
"It was not so long ago that India directly intervened to put Birendra's grandfather, King Tribhuvan, on the throne. In 1950, King Tribhuvan of the Shah dynasty--with the full backing of India--launched a bid for power against the ruling Rana dynasty. Tribhuvan escaped to India, where he worked with the Nepali Congress and the Indian government to undermine the Rana regime. With the direct intervention of India, negotiations led to Tribhuvan's being able to return to Nepal in 1951 and set up a new government comprised of Shahs and the Nepali Congress.
While Nepal was never colonized by an imperialist power, India has long regarded Nepal as its protectorate. And today it is largely, though not exclusively, through India that Nepal is linked to the world imperialist system.
In order to maintain its control over Nepal, India would be likely to intervene militarily if the present pro-India setup in Nepal is seriously threatened. So there is much concern by the India government as to whether or not the Nepalese ruling class is able to contain the Maoist insurgency. Whether or not India had any direct involvement in the palace murders, any analysis of recent events must take India's influence in Nepal into account.
India has long considered Nepal strategically important in its often hostile relationship with China. Nepal lies between China and India, and India sees control of Nepal as key to its security. This conflict intensified after China was liberated in 1949 and Mao came to power. Aiming to prevent friendly relations between Nepal and the new socialist government in China, India secured an agreement in 1965 in which Nepal promised to get any arms it required from India and to import arms from Britain and America, only if India was unable to meet its request. The agreement also stipulated that Nepalese officers would train at Indian colleges. And many Nepalese continued to serve in the Indian Gurkha regiments along the border with China.
India also has a long history of ripping off Nepal's natural resources. One of the sharpest examples of this is the 1996 Mahakali Treaty which established India's right to basically steal Nepal's water. While Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, in terms of water resources it is one of the richest--with the capacity to produce electricity equivalent to that of Mexico, the USA and Canada combined. But unequal treaties force Nepal to sell much of its water to India at give-away prices. Meanwhile, 40% of the rural population in Nepal lack regular supplies of potable water. And only about 10% of the country has access to hydro-electric power.
As a landlocked country, Nepal depends on India for transportation and trade goods. And Nepal has been forced into all kinds of unequal trade treaties with India. In 1989, after a dispute over trade agreements, India imposed a virtual trade embargo on Nepal. As a result, much of Nepal's trade simply disappeared overnight, along with essential supplies of fuel and medicine. India cracked down on the border, to prevent goods from other countries getting into Nepal. And Nepalese working in India were not even allowed to bring their salaries over the border. All this deepened sentiments in Nepal against Indian hegemony.
Regional Shockwaves and Concerns
After the palace murders, India and China voiced concern about the politically volatile situation in Nepal and both sent messages to Gyanendra, calling for peace and stability.
India has been closely monitoring the political crisis in Nepal, worried about the Maoist insurgency gaining strength right across its open border. And there has also been talk that Gyanendra is closer to China than India. One analyst in South Asia wrote: "The elevation of Prince Gyanendra as King of Nepal presents India with a tricky problem. The new monarch is said to favor closer ties between Kathmandu and Beijing, a scenario that fills foreign policy wonks in New Delhi with dread. Successive Indian governments have striven to keep Nepal out of the Chinese sphere of influence; they succeeded mainly because of the slain King Birendra's instinctive pro-India stance. But Gyanendra is a different proposition."
Concern that the People's War in Nepal could shake the already volatile South Asian region has been underscored in recent months by the parade of diplomats from India, China, Britain and the U.S.--who held meetings with Nepalese officials where the Maoist insurgency was a major item on the agenda."