Trud June 14, 2001 [translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only] VLADIMIR SOKOLIN: "LEVEL OF POVERTY EXAGGERATED IN RUSSIA" Poverty in the Mirror of Statistics
The State Committee for Statistics provides about one billion figures every year. The GDP, the average wage, price growth rates, financial operation of enterprises and many other socio-economic figures cover virtually all spheres of life in Russia. Statisticians not only "collect" figures, but also use them to carefully research and analyse trends and make forecasts. All branches of power, businessmen and social institutes cannot work without this vital information. But how correct are the figures by which the course of the Russian boat is charted? This and other questions are answered by Vladimir SOKOLIN, Chairman of the State Committee for Statistics, in an interview he granted to Vitaly GOLOVACHEV, Trud political analyst.
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Question: Your specialists say that the shadow sector of the economy accounts for 25% of the GDP, while the special services cite a larger figure - 40%. Will you comment on the difference?
Answer: There is no difference, because everything depends on the interpretation of the term "shadow economy." To us, shadow economy is economic activity that is not registered in financial reports and tax declarations. For example, returns from the sale of vegetables, fruit and other products grown on private household plots remain "in the shadow." This equals about 50% of the shadow sector or the aforementioned 25% of the GDP. But the law-enforcement agencies include crime into this sector, in particular racketeering, swindling, drug trafficking and smuggling. This is how they got 40%.
Question: Do you take into account shadow incomes when calculating the number of population below the poverty line?
Answer: Yes, we do this by a special method of calculation, yet I don't think we cover all shadow incomes.
Question: That is, the level of poverty in Russia is exaggerated?
Answer: Yes, and very considerably, I think. Unregistered shadow incomes from the sale of agricultural products at outdoor markets are only one of the many factors. There is one more aspect. Many families do not sell but consume the fruit, vegetables, meat and milk they produce. But the level of poverty is calculated in Russia solely on the basis of monetary incomes. A considerable share of products acquired in the aforementioned manner is not taken into account. According to our tentative estimates, nearly 40 million households are related, in one way or another, to private agricultural production. In other words, the number of the poor is actually smaller than is officially announced.
And lastly, there is the third factor. The subsistence wage was raised by roughly 15% a year and a half ago. Before that, the minimum basket included only bare necessities, without which physiological survival is impossible. But today the minimum consumer basket includes many other things. In particular, the basket includes not only a suit, but also a tracksuit, wool-mixture trousers and jeans. The set of basic footwear now also includes sneakers. Other "additions" are a sewing machine, cookies and sweets. In short, this basket does not bespeak of dire poverty.
Question: According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, there were 54.4 million "officially" poor in the first quarter of this year. What do you think is the true figure?
Answer: Around 30 million. Too many, yet fewer than 54 million.