>The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure in the Light of Current Developments
>
>Robert E. Hall
>National Bureau of Economic Research
>
>June 18, 2001
>This report is also available as a PDF file.
>
>This memo will appear on the NBER's website, NBER.org, during the
>period of uncertainty about the state of the economy. The purpose of
>the memo is to explain the Bureau's procedures for dating
>recessions, not to indicate whether or not the economy is in a
>recession. That determination is made only by the Bureau's business
>cycle dating committee, which has not yet met. More than anything
>else, this memo explains why the committee has yet to meet. This
>version of the memo refers to the most recently revised
>data--important revisions to the employment data became available at
>the beginning of June.
>
>In summary, the data normally considered by the committee indicate
>the possibility that a recession began recently, but the economy has
>not declined nearly enough to merit a meeting of the committee or
>the determination of a peak date. In April, employment fell for the
>first time in the past six months and fell again, slightly, in May.
>The total decline in employment is only a small fraction of the
>decline that has occurred in recessions. Industrial production
>peaked in September 2000 and is now down 3.9 percent from its peak.
>The contraction appears to be limited to the sector covered by
>industrial production, manufacturing, and has not spread to other
>sectors.
rest at <http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html>