Is that so? The same guy. I have the book, and read it years ago, when it first came out.
Friedman may be hoping his prophesy is self-fulfilling, especially in conjunction with todays' NYT frontpage story by Stephanie Strom, "Deflation Shackles Japan, Blocking Hope of Recovery". Frontpage on the NYT typically signals ruling class worry, no? (right alongside Kosovo) It's theme hints at a tactic of reinflation as a first assault wave on the Japanese working class. The same thing happened in the lead up to Reagan at the end of the 1970's, you might recall. Trouble is, Japan is headed in the opposite direction. It's like they put their army in the field, but faced 180 degrees in the wrong direction. The politically influential top ranks of the bureaucracy are no doubt (I conjecture, of course) split between the major bourgeois political parties, who must all have connection with this or that faction if they hope to govern. But the parties are weak, too: The LDP, in apparent terminal decay, is deeply split; The current opposition, the Japan Democratic Party (JDP), formed only ~5 years ago, is a wobbly latchup of ex-rightwing social democrats and renegade ex-LDPers, mostly. It has potential to fall apart once in power, just as the opposition did in the early 1990's. Nobody's looking to play the Iron Lady's Tory Bolshevik role.
But Friedman is probably erring on the downside in underestimating Japans' room for maneuver - it hasn't "run out" quite yet, especially in relation to its East Asian neighbors. (See Stroms' reference to the economic effects of Starbucks and cheap Chinese consumer goods, the same is happening with cheap Chinese agricultural products flooding the Japan market). Any attempt at protection will shrink this manuver-space, already crimped by the idiotic quibbles over tiny rock islands, education whitewashes, refusals to apologize, ad nauseam. In short, Tokyos' inability to exercise full sovereignty in the context of its security relation to Washington, where it functions as Uncle Sams' forward aircraft carrier. Aircraft carriers don't maneuver well. Breaking with this security relation would open up a lot more maneuver room, but don't expect this most dishonorable and cowardly of bourgeoises - the inverse historical imprint of centuries of samurai warrior rule - to face the wrath of Washington in this way.
But my general perception should be correct: Japan has the least room to maneuver of the G7. Japan is the weak link of the G7 now. True, paralysis and impasse could continue for some time, as it did in Britain for some 15 years, albeit against a sharply contrasting social-political foreground: Britain: open class battles; Japan: relative class peace; Britain: relatively low G7 living standard; Japan: relatively high G7 living standard; Britain: really bad cuisine; Japan: really good cuisine. :-D
Ummm, now that makes me hungry. Makes me want to take out some sushi for dinner tonight. Time to leave work and do so, before Sun lays us all off.
-Brad Mayer Oakland, CA
>Stratfor proprietor Friedman co-wrote a book with his now-wife
>Meredith (who had a different last name then that I can't recall) in
>the late 1980s with the eye-catching title The Coming War With Japan.
>That's when it seemed like Japan was taking over the world and the
>U.S. was on the ropes. Now, it's Japan on the ropes. I wonder if he's
>getting too carried away on the downside now.
>
>Doug