>(Is the "new economy" really new?)
>
>"One observer who demands attention thinks not. Larry Summers, who
>has just retired as Americas' Treasury secretary, has recently
>argued that Americas' current cycle is fundamentally different from
>its postwar predecessors - though not because it is "new". He argues
>that it has more in common with economic cycles as they worked
>before the second world war - or even, wait for it, with Japans'
>during the late 1980's. This is a comparison he thought it unwise
>to draw while still in office. Mr. Summers still hopes that a
>recession will be avoided in America. But if he is right about how
>things work, predictions based on orthodox business cycle
>calculations are of little use."
Hey, he stole this from me!
One way this cycle is different from most post-WW II downturns is that financial disruptions contributed to it. In that, it's sort of like the early-90s recession, except that one was caused by a credit crunch following the implosion of the junk bond market, the S&Ls, the LBO mania, etc. This one got started by the collapse of the IPO/Nasdaq mania.
Doug