predictions

Seth Ackerman SAckerman at FAIR.org
Tue Mar 20 10:17:07 PST 2001



>From RFE/RL "Balkan Report," December 22 2000:

"...one should not pay too much attention to Belgrade's red herring that independence for Kosova will lead to a breakup of Macedonia, the establishment of a greater Albania, and other horrors. The Albanians of Albania, Kosova, and Macedonia are fully aware of the profound cultural and political differences that divide them. Ibrahim Rugova recently told the Montenegrin daily "Pobjeda" specifically that he does not want all Albanians in one state. No major ethnic Albanian party in any Balkan country advocates a greater Albania as a serious political objective (in contrast to some greater Serbian parties). And one need not worry about the breakup of Macedonia so long as it truly becomes a state of all its people and based on rule of law."

---

"Balkan Report," January 23 2001:

"Why many Westerners maintain their dogged insistence on preserving what is left of Humpty Dumpty's shell is sometimes hard to fathom. Perhaps there is a desire to prove that their diplomatic failures in 1991 and in subsequent years were just an aberration. Perhaps there is a real fear that the peaceful separation of Montenegro and the independence of Kosova would somehow lead to a new Balkan anarchy and the formation of an inherently wicked greater Albania. After all, Milosevic's propaganda machine and numerous Western pundits have been pushing this line for years.

But the previous wars did not just "happen." They were instigated by a Belgrade dictator who has been consigned to the sidelines, at least for now...

As for the Albanians, no leading ethnic Albanian politician or mainstream political party anywhere in the Balkans is campaigning for a greater Albania as a realizable goal at any time in the foreseeable future. Mutual contacts in recent years have helped gently remind Albanians in Albania, Kosova, and Macedonia that they come from three very different societies and political cultures, which would not be easily integrated into a common polity. On a more practical note, union would mean power-sharing --- and that is something that does not come easily to politicians anywhere."



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