platform shoes and bear markets

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu May 10 09:44:12 PDT 2001


The wacky Elliott Wave Theorist newsletters - which explain the financial markets using strange wave patterns and Fibonacci numbers - are free this week. (Go to <http://services.elliottwave.com/monthly/> and use the user name "elliott" and the password "rules" - all lower case.) Here's an excerpt from one:


>As for the cultural effects of the bear market, they are obviously
>much more fully developed there than in the United States. So, Japan
>presents a view to the U.S.' future, as The Elliott Wave Theorist
>has suggested for several years. In addition to the washout we have
>witnessed in Japan's equity culture, recent months have brought a
>wave of nationalism and punk rock. Genuine political upheaval has
>also arrived with the election of a reform-minded prime minister.
>Can things get any worse? Indeed they will. Before the bear market
>is over, the Japanese will probably elect someone who is not even a
>member of the Liberal Democratic Party. Remember, manias tend to be
>more than fully retraced, and Japan's mania goes back to at least
>1982 when the Nikkei was at 6850, less than half of current levels,
>and probably to 1974 when it was near 3000. In other words, the bear
>market is still in mid-trend. One cultural clue to that fact is the
>emergence of "super-platform" shoes. Last year, platform soles of up
>to nine inches became popular among "girl fashion gangs" and women
>who want to emulate the gangs' look. A similar excess for men hit
>the U.S. footwear market in 1973 when the bear market in
>inflation-adjusted terms was only about half over. For the Japanese
>market, then, this appears to be cultural confirmation that the bear
>market has a ways to go. In the U.S., where soles have just started
>to rise, the message for people who remember 1970s relics like the
>one shown here is, don't buy stocks on the Nikkei too soon.

EWT founder Robert Prechter argues that you can analyze the stock market by following cultural trends. Punk is bearish. Girl groups are popular during corrections.

Doug



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