World Bank Releases Approach Paper on Afghanistan
WASHINGTON, November 7, 2001 The World Bank has released an approach paper on Afghanistan as it prepares to co-host a conference on the country's reconstruction with the United Nations Development Programme and the Asian Development Bank.
The three-day conference, "Preparing for Afghanistan's Reconstruction," will be held from November 27 to 29 in Islamabad, Pakistan, where the organizers hope to gather not only a wide range of experienced participants from the assistance community but representatives from the community of knowledgeable Afghans.
"We expect that the November conference will begin an intensified process of consultation and cooperation aimed at identifying and agreeing on Afghanistan's future reconstruction requirements," says William Byrd, World Bank Acting Country Manager for Afghanistan. "We will be building on the operational experience of various NGOs and other agencies in the country, on analytical work that the Bank and partners have been producing in recent years and on international experience with post-conflict reconstruction elsewhere. We do not begin this work on a blank slate, but recent events present new possibilities and it is critical that we take our preparedness to the next level."
The Bank's approach paper suggests that once a post-conflict government is in prospect, reconstruction funding would most sensibly be channeled through a trust fund, a mechanism which would ensure effective prioritization and utilization of funding across a wide range of reconstruction and development activities.
"International experience has shown us that aid management will be critical for the success of Afghanistan's reconstruction effort," says Byrd. "You need a sound financial mechanism, good aid coordination based on real partnerships, and last but not least, Afghans must play an integral role in reconstruction, from planning to implementation."
On the agenda of the conference will be the main issues of the immediate post-crisis recovery period, including how to stimulate agricultural recovery and employment generation to provide income-earning opportunities and food security for communities. In addition, discussion will address the development of social and infrastructure areas, including education and health services, managing urban redevelopment and rebuilding essential infrastructure like irrigation facilities and road networks.
The Bank's approach paper, which will guide the development of a strategy for the institution's contribution to Afghanistan's reconstruction, says it is premature to put a price tag on the work ahead, but the cost is expected to be high. In addition, levels of assistance will be determined by what could be expected to be quite large balance of payments and budgetary financing needs on the one hand and initially low domestic absorptive capacity on the other, in a country where human capital has been eroded by decades-long conflict.
"Reconstruction cannot be separated from the longer-term economic and social development of Afghanistan," says Byrd. "Services like education and health never reached most of the population before the 1979 Soviet invasion, and agricultural production will have to support a considerably larger population than before (an estimated 25 million if all Afghan refugees were to return). Roads and other infrastructure services will need to reach towns and communities that have always been cut off from the cities and main roads. Tomorrow's leaders in Afghanistan could have a real opportunity to develop their country in a way that doesn't just clear the rubble but opens a whole new horizon."
The heart of the challenge is not merely a restoration to the pre-conflict situation of the late 1970s, which would merely return Afghanistan to its status as one of the world's poorest countries as measured in both incomes and social indicators. Currently, UN and non-governmental estimates of infant mortality, for example, place Afghanistan among the highest in the world with 165 deaths per 1,000 live births. A further 257 out of 1,000 toddlers die before they reach the age of five. An estimated 1,700 mothers out of 100,000 die in childbirth, and a recent World Bank study estimated that in the mid to late 1990s, about 500 people each month fell victim to landmines or other unexploded ordnance.
Key economic institutions of State such as a central bank, treasury, tax collection and customs, statistics, civil service, law and order and a judicial system are extremely weak or simply missing. Basic infrastructure like roads, bridges, irrigation, canals, telecommunications, electricity and markets have been destroyed or, without maintenance, are not functioning. These issues all point to the need for a broad-based development effort in Afghanistan.
The Bank's approach paper stresses close partnership with the broader assistance community, both official and non-governmental. Some existing assistance programs already in place could be scaled up rapidly when the conflict ends to generate quick relief. These areas include food security, education and de-mining, the latter a task which is already underway in some parts of the country. Based on the de-mining experience so far, the Bank estimates that countrywide clearance could cost about US$500 million, as an example of just one of the many important activities that would need substantial funding during reconstruction.
Short-term priorities for the reconstruction period could include, according to the Bank:
* Agricultural recovery and food security;
* Livelihood generation for returning refugees and displaced people;
* Support to existing communities through provision of basic services and small-scale development and empowerment programs;
* Rapid rehabilitation of Afghanistan's main road network;
* Expansion of the de-mining program;
* Massive short-run employment generation through public works programs;
* Re-starting and expanding key social services like education and health, with a focus on reaching girls and women; and
* Human capacity mobilization for social services, infrastructure and public administration.
Other elements of the reconstruction agenda are likely to come to the fore as a post-conflict government finds its feet and takes ownership of its development challenge.
* Establishment of sound economic management institutions like a Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, Treasury, Statistical System;
* Developing education and health systems that reach the bulk of the population;
* Developing a lean, effective and honest civil service and institutions of public accountability;
* Urban management and, in particular, avoiding permanent large "refugee cities";
* Enabling environment for private sector developmentparticularly to attract and productively utilize Afghans from Pakistan, Iran and the Middle East; * Export development, focusing on agricultural and livestock products and minerals;
* Energy development and management; and
* Environment and natural resource management, especially forestry.
The conference later this month will intensify the work on this broad reconstruction agenda among all development partners. The Bank hopes also to bring together Afghans and other experts on the country for inputs and advice and to conduct a search for Afghan professionals living outside their country who could contribute to Afghanistan's reconstruction.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The report will be available to the public on the World Wide Web immediately after the embargo expires at <http://www.worldbank.org/af>
Media outlets are encouraged to include this Web address in their coverage of the report.