It Ain't Over Til It's Over: What to watch for in Afghanistan By Zoltan Grossman
(...)
But there is a method to this madness, more to U.S. aims in the region than is readily apparent. Afghanistan has historically been in an extremely strategic location straddling South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Will the U.S. attempt to use the current crisis to establish a permanent presence in the region? Each recent large U.S. intervention has left behind a string of new military bases in a region where they had never before had a foothold The Gulf War left behind large U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf states--the main Bin Laden grievance that fueled the September 11 attacks. Military interventions in former Yugoslavia resulted in U.S. bases in four countries, including the sprawling Camp Bondsteel complex in Kosovo. Were the military bases merely built to aid the interventions, or did the interventions occur partly in order to station the bases?
The U.S. military is inserting itself into strategic areas of the world, and anchoring U.S. geopolitical influence in these areas, at a very critical time in history. With the rise of a new European economic superpower, and increased economic competition from East Asia, U.S. economic power is perhaps on the wane. But in military affairs, the U.S. is still the unquestioned superpower. Why not project that military dominance into new strategic regions as a future counterweight to its competitors? French President Jacques Chirac correctly viewed the U.S. role in the Persian Gulf as securing control over oil sources for Europe and Japan. Afghanistan lies along a proposed Unocal pipeline route from new Caspian Sea oil fields to the Indian Ocean. Allied checkpoints are now being set up along the Afghan highways that would serve as potential routes for the pipeline.
(...)
Will Bin Laden really be captured, or (like Saddam) be allowed to live in order to justify a permanent stationing of U.S. troops? Will anthrax be used as a new excuse to bomb and invade Iraq? Finally, will the new U.S. military bases in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan become permanent outposts guarding a new oil infrastructure? A failure of the U.S. to pull out of the region after the war, to leave behind a government that truly represents Afghani civilians, or to lure Muslims away from militant groups, will only give impetus to new Bin Ladens, and to future September 11s.