> Except there will be no more major terrorist attacks in the US during
> the period, so Max will win his empty wager, but otherwise the entire
> tableaux of the country will still be transfixed by WTC, sinking
> slowly into the mire of time like all empires have in the past.
Well, you've given me an opportunity with your predictions. Admittedly my posts are rife with speculation in any case, but rather than endeavor to make a change, I'll play the Great Criswell and put on my fortune-telling cap. (Wise readers would be advised to hit delete now.) I've had some success with it on this list already, since my cap correctly forecast a) an electoral college/popular vote split in the Bush vs. Gore election, b) mayhem in the streets in Genoa, and more recently, c) Israel losing its footing in its previously solid relationship with the U.S. All astoundingly prescient and completely unforseeable to everyone but the owner of this cap, of course.
And there was this, from October of 2000, re. the about-to-be-elected Bush administration:
> A contentious debate on
> social security in year one will be interrupted by a major
> foreign policy crisis for Bush a few months into year two.
> An inept and largely disjointed Bush administration will be
> seen as bungling the situation, with potential catastrophic
> results, until the unforseen emergence into the spotlight
> of an as-yet unnamed personage from the right who
> manages to take the reins and exert enough influence at
> the right moment to extricate Bush from his dilemma.
I expect this plays into the current situation fairly well, though I got the timing slightly wrong. We'll see who this "dark horse" who rides to Dubya's aid will be (or perhaps he or she is one of the prominent figures already working diligently behind the scenes). So, with the above spurring me on to ever more foolish prognostication, I don my cap once again and predict:
Arafat, and possibly Sharon, will disappear from the scene entirely in the next 60-90 days. Conflict in Israel and Palestine will surpass previous levels (not necessarily owing to, or even following, the aforementioned). Anthrax scares in the U.S. and elsewhere will level off in the next six months but will continue, punctuated at intervals by unprecedented smaller-scale terrorist incidents in U.S. cities ala the Sbarro bombing in Israel (esp. in those municipalities away from the east coast that have as yet been mostly spared, i.e. the midwest). And there will be one more big one. Paradoxically, European allies (sans Britain) will be seen to pull away somewhat from the U.S. coalition-wise, in an almost involuntary, kneejerk effort to distance themselves from what will increasingly be understood as a U.S. tainted with chaos and unpredictability. Most North Americans will settle into a new lifestyle marked by unprecedented creeping curtailments of the civil liberties they've so often taken for granted (ID cards will become a reality) - and the majority won't object in the least. Powell or another member of the Bush inner circle will run for elected office in 2004, though I can't say why or where Bush goes in this scenario. And finally, Bush and Blair are going to unveil some kind of big plan.
Oh, and although it won't matter - Osama will be toast by Christmas, and the Northern Alliance will split into two very distinct factions in the not-too distant future.
Well, I guess that's enough for the next six months or so.
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/ dave /