A shaky bet now?

[Max Sawicky]

CC: > I don't bet. Probably what I did say was that it was good politics to
> predict that the criminal u.s. attack on afghanistan would not deter
> terrorists -- my argument being that (except on trivial locations like
> maillists) if the prediction was wrong no one would particularly
> remember anyhow, and if it was right it would pay off handsomely in
> political advantages.
>
> If you want to call that a bet, it was a 100% sure thing. Those making
> the prediction would not lose if the prediction was wrong but would win
> if it was right.   :-)  Carrol

In the Age of Google, all of your unsound wagers will
be susceptible to instant retrieval.

More seriously, if the prediction is wrong, it makes the peace movement
look stupid -- for claiming that something that proved to be successful
could not possibly work.  Not unlike the immediate aftermath of the Gulf
War,
when the Bush Administration sandbagged the Democrats by encouraging the
myth that Iraq had some huge mean motha of a land army, then smashed
it in days.

mbs