>What is this unit, interviewed on CNN a few hours ago.
>
>And what is the theory underlying its model, that allows it to
>suggest that the cycle will start picking up again in the spring???
ECRI <http://www.businesscycle.com/> is a highly respectable outfit. It was founded by Geoffrey Moore, one of the gurus of business cycle research. They have a bunch of leading indexes that consist of components that tend to lead up- and downturns in the business cycle. The record of these sorts of things is pretty good.
They have a weekly leading index <http://www.businesscycle.com/pdfs/WLIwkly.xls> whose latest data point is for Sept 7, and it's down. What spring upturn did they forsee? They do have a long leading index that's not available without a fee. Is that up?
Doug