Economic Cycle Research Unit

[Chris Burford]

At 19/09/01 20:13 -0400, you wrote:
>Chris Burford wrote:
>
>>What is this unit, interviewed on CNN a few hours ago.
>>
>>And what is the theory underlying its model, that allows it to suggest 
>>that the cycle will start picking up again in the spring???
>
>ECRI <http://www.businesscycle.com/> is a highly respectable outfit. It 
>was founded by Geoffrey Moore, one of the gurus of business cycle 
>research. They have a bunch of leading indexes that consist of components 
>that tend to lead up- and downturns in the business cycle. The record of 
>these sorts of things is pretty good.
>
>They have a weekly leading index 
><http://www.businesscycle.com/pdfs/WLIwkly.xls> whose latest data point is 
>for Sept 7, and it's down. What spring upturn did they forsee? They do 
>have a long leading index that's not available without a fee. Is that up?
>
>Doug

I think it must have been this interview that I caught on CNN Europe, later 
Wednesday evening, our time.

I could not catch the detailed reasoning, in what is really of course a 
general headlines show.

He was certainly emphasising that the cycle was turning sharply down for 
reasons independent of the current security, aviation, and political 
crisis. But he was expecting a quick up turn after a couple of quarters.

Incidentally Soros, this morning, our time, was also predicting a sharp 
downturn *and a quick upturn*.

These predictions and the drastic loss of confidence by the mainstream 
economists that they know what is happening, seems an interesting 
and  important opportunity for progressive economists and "business 
observers" to get into the detail. Will the up turn be quick? In general a 
"marxist" approach would predict it would not,

would it not?

Chris Burford

London

 From their website:


>Lou Dobbs Moneyline
>
>September 19, 2001
>
>ECRI's managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, will be a guest on CNN's 
>Moneyline program this evening at 6:00 PM eastern time.