>
> Here's a real humdinger: if you're on a game show where there's a prize
> behind one door and x number of booby prizes behind the other doors, you
> should always switch from your original choice (at least, if you want to
> heighten your chances of winning) after the booby prizes have been revealed
> and only two doors remain (the one you chose and the one that probably has
> the prize behind it).
Add Bayesianism to the list of isms on lbo-talk. Are adherents called Bayesites? Bayesians?
http://astro.uchicago.edu/rranch/vkashyap/Misc/mh.html
An examination of how humans are behaviorally wired for assessing risk and probability and why Luke, Zak, Matt et al. would take all of my money if they ran a casino, a game show, or an options exchange is in Peter Bernstein's "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk."
http://www.peterlbernsteininc.com/
Chris