>>
>>Do you follow this with coin tosses? Each coin toss, no matter how many
>>times you do it, has a 1/2 probability of coming up heads. It doesn't
>>matter if your previous 500 coin toss where heads (See Stoppard's play
>>_Rosenkrantz and Guidenstern are Dead_...), the next coin toss still has
>>the same probability.
>
>Yep....
BUT only if the coin a.) has two *different* faces, b.) each side is evenly weighted, and c.) there are no "occult" influences manipulating the outcome. If these assumptions are not all proven to be unwarranted, you are much better off betting on a continuation of the run (would anyone in the audience for R&GAD even dream of betting "tails" on the last toss) ?
>
>Here's a real humdinger: if you're on a game show where there's a
>prize behind one door and x number of booby prizes behind the other
>doors, you should always switch from your original choice (at least,
>if you want to heighten your chances of winning) after the booby
>prizes have been revealed and only two doors remain (the one you
>chose and the one that probably has the prize behind it).
>
The same principle ("Restricted Choice") applies in Bridge. If you
hold 9 cards
in a suit, missing Queen, Jack, and Nine you must start the suit by playing
a top honor, making sure that the other honor and the Ten remain in the same
hand. If the defender behind the Ten has discarded the Jack or Queen, you
will succeed twice as often by finessing the Ten as by playing for the drop.
The exceptions are a.) if the player behind the Ten has bid a natural No Trump,
promising at least two cards in the suit, and b.) if the player in front of the
Ten has been shown to hold a very long side suit or a two-suited hand.
Shane Mage
"When we read on a printed page the doctrine of Pythagoras that all things are made of numbers, it seems mystical, mystifying, even downright silly.
When we read on a computer screen the doctrine of Pythagoras that all things are made of numbers, it seems self-evidently true." (N. Weiner)