'Oracle of Omaha' expects a sluggish market -- just when you started to feel good again. March 12, 2002: 10:34 AM EST By Staff Writer Martine Costello
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks have fallen off their pedestal and investors feel as if they've been to hell and back. First Sept. 11, then an official recession, and non-stop earnings gloom-and-doom.
Now, just as everybody was starting to feel a tiny bit better about the outlook for Wall Street, one of the world's greatest investors, Warren Buffett, has to spoil the mood.
The Dow has been rallying, fueled by signs that the U.S. economy is turning around. But Buffett, chairman of investing conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, painted a bleak picture in his annual letter to shareholders released this weekend.
He said -- gasp -- that he has "lukewarm" expectations for the U.S. market during the next decade.
"The market outperformed business for a very long time, and that phenomenon had to end," Buffett wrote.
Buffett disciples: It's deja vu Buffett devotees say the man known as the "Oracle of Omaha," is on familiar turf. For years, he's talked about high valuations, stock bubbles and funny accounting in his folksy missives. (In describing the bull market's IPO craze in the 2000 shareholder letter, he said, "The business model for these companies has been the old-fashioned chain letter, for which many fee-hungry investment bankers acted as eager postmen.")
Today's equity prices presage only moderate returns for investors.
Warren Buffett
"Warren is obviously a very long-term thinker," said Bill Nygren, a well-known value manager at Oakmark Fund and Oakmark Select. "The economy recovery, whether it's first-quarter, second-quarter, or second half of the year, doesn't influence his thoughts on valuations."
While Buffett said he remains "cautiously optimistic" about Berkshire Hathaway's stock investments, he admits they aren't cheap. The list includes American Express (AXP: Research, Estimates), Coca-Cola (KO: Research, Estimates), and Gilette Co (G: Research, Estimates).
"Today's equity prices presage only modest returns for investors," Buffett said.
At the same time, Buffett is quick to point out that he doesn't call the market. In last year's letter, for example, he said speculation isn't illegal, immoral or un-American. But he said he still wasn't going to do it -- and neither was his partner, Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger.
"It is not a game in which Charlie and I wish to play," he quipped. "We bring nothing to the party, so why should we expect to take anything home?"
Invest like Buffett Of course, Berkshire shares are out of range for most of Main Street investors -- A shares trade around $71,500, while B shares are at a more "affordable" $2,386.
If you're not a Rockefeller and you want to get in on Buffett's style, you could try Legg Mason Focus Trust. The fund is managed by Robert Hagstrom, author of The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor. Hagstrom follows the same rules of stock investing as Buffett.
The fund, with $135 million in assets, is up 2.2 percent this year through March 8, beating the S&P by 0.5 percent, according to Morningstar. (But investors beware: its focused portfolio of just 20 stocks makes it a risky option -- it was a top performer in 1998 and 2001 but was at the bottom of the heap in 1999 and 2000. Be prepared for rocky times.)
One last thought: Don't lose faith in the "Oracle from Omaha" because his company lost book value for the first time in 37 years, said Alan Ackerman, senior vice president at Fahnstock & Co. Buffett is just a victim of unusual times. Year 2001 included two major jolts -- Sept. 11 and the fallout from Enron's plunge into bankruptcy.
"Warren Buffett has shown the ability to endure," Ackerman said. "He hasn't lost his touch."