Chris Doss The Russia Journal ---------------------------- Iraq on the Eve of War U.S. military action in the Persian Gulf may split the anti-terrorist coalition
by Mikhail Khodorenok issued on 04.27.2002 (MST)
With Washington stepping up its pressure on Russia to persuade it to agree to tougher UN sanctions against Iraq, the Kremlin's undivided support for Iraq might distance it from the West, which would conflict with the Putin administration's foreign policy. On the other hand, should Moscow approve U.S. military action in Iraq, this would be another sign of the fact that Russia is losing its positions in the international arena. Both options are equally bad as far as Moscow is concerned. The prospect of a united front by Islamic states against the United States and its allies looks fairly unreal even despite the fact that quite a few Arab countries disapprove of U.S. intrigues over Iraq. Even the most vociferous European critics of U.S. policy in the Middle and Near East will not go beyond censuring Washington and then only in mild terms. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration appears to have overcome differences on how it should deal with Iraq and come to the conclusion that military action is the only option open to it. Washington is pondering several scenarios that could remove Saddam Hussein from power. It is likely to confront him with what will amount to an ultimatum that the Iraqi leader will be unable to accept, and that fact will be used as an excuse for attack. In March U.S. Vice President Dick Chaney toured several Arab and non-Arab countries to enlist support for an act against Iraq. Normally such tours are made to either assess the situation before making a final decision on the course of action or inform allies of the decision and explain the U.S. position. In early April George W. Bush and Tony Blair spoke of the need to replace the leadership in Baghdad but stopped short of mentioning military action. It is noteworthy that neither of them attempted to link Saddam Hussein to international terrorism or terrorist organizations. There has also been a furry of U.S. diplomatic activity with the aim of forming a coalition against Iraq, with financial assistance to Middle East countries playing a significant role in this effort. The United States earmarked close to $74 billion for military programs for those countries in 1999-2000 alone. Many NATO countries do not want to be immediately involved in U.S. military action in Iraq because they believe targeting that country would represent another attempt to topple Saddam Hussein rather than an anti-terrorist campaign. Even Turkey, one of the U.S. most loyal ally in the Middle East, has said U.S. military action in Iraq might destabilize the situation in the region and spur Kurdish separatist movements in Turkey as well as Iraq, which would cause an upheaval in Turkey itself. The White House responded by making it clear Turkey's "pro-Iraqi stand" would undermine Turkey's military cooperation with Israel, which has made good progress exclusively due to the United States. Nevertheless, the Pentagon is reported to have begun preparations for a military campaign against Iraq. For a start, aircraft will bomb nearly all military installations. U.S. military activity has been reported at American air bases in Kuwait. Tens of high-ranking military chiefs arrived in Kuwait in December last year. Iraqi leaders are doing what they can to prepare the country for a possible attack. Baghdad has assigned top officials to particular areas in the north, west and south, with Saddam Hussein being responsible for the country's central part and its capital. The officials are empowered to use military force at their own discretion if the ruling regime comes under threat. Efforts are being made to disguise military installations and make the country's military potential more impressive than it really is. For example, old aircraft incapable of combat missions are being deployed on airfields. Baghdad is quite likely to use poison gases if the United States launches a ground operation. Iraqi businessmen in foreign countries and Iraqi embassies have been instructed to recruit specialists who could go to Iraq to help Iraq's military-industrial complex maintain, repair and manufacture weapons and military hardware. The recruitment effort is most prominent in CIS countries, notably in Ukraine and Belarus.