The upcoming parliamentary elections are going to be special. All the previous ones were conducted under Boris Yeltsin's influence. The next elections will show a new face of Putin's Russia. Will the politicians of the Yeltsin epoch leave the scene, and who will come instead? Have the political preferences of the Russians changed? These and other questions are answered for Rossiiskiye Vesti by Vyacheslav IGRUNOV, deputy chairman of the State Duma committee for CIS affairs and ties with compatriots and chief of the Institute of Humanitarian and Applied Studies.
Question: Let us start by briefly reviewing the entire political spectrum. In what parts can it be divided? That is, how many Russians adhere to communist ideology and how many of them prefer social-democratic, right-wing liberal and ultra-nationalist ideology? Finally, how many people are in what is called the "centrist quagmire?"
Answer: There are two major groups. First, it is the left-wing communist electorate representing some 30 percent of the voters. Evidently it is suffering a split. And if, say, Seleznev's Rossiya could have a young, bright and charismatic leader, it could chip 5 to 6 percent off the Communist Party.
Second comes the centrist quagmire, as you put it. I would prefer to call it a traditional pro-state position. A Russian man needs a true master. This myth is supported by the same 30 percent of the voters who will always vote for a party identified with existing power in Russia.
Question: Could you be more specific? As I see it, United Russia is too colourless. Perhaps the Party of Life that appeared recently is destined to replace it on the throne? Is the Kremlin changing its player or not?
Answer: As I see it, it is not a question of replacement. Though Putin personally supports the Party of Life, it would be hard to explain to the majority of voters why they should turn away from United Russia. Most likely there is a rivalry between those who had managed to secure a place in it and those who remained outside. Both parties represent one and the same bureaucratic class and simply want to divide the electorate between themselves. Therefore the Party of Life is unlikely to replace United Russia, though with good effort it can tear 5 or 6 percent away from it.
Question: And what is the People's Party led by Gennady Raikov?
Answer: The People's Party will hardly overcome the 5% eligibility barrier. It exists as a reserve player to be let out into the electoral field at the right moment. I think the Kremlin administration stakes either on the Party of Life or on United Russia (depending on the situation), and its stakes on the People's Party are not big at all. Though, on the other hand, there are many people in that party who can attract significant resources. It will be especially possible if United Russia proves unable to remain attractive for those who support it at present.
Question: OK, the situation is clear as regards the communists and the party of power. And what party comes third?
Answer: The left-centrist group. It is a good deal smaller and claims 15 to 20 percent of the electorate. First Fatherland tried to get a place in the left-centrist niche and now Mikhail Gorbachev's Social-Democratic Party wants to do that. Yabloko is gradually returning there as well. Nonetheless the niche has not been won. There is not a single political leader and no serious political party capable of mustering 15 percent of the voters and representing their interests in parliament. The emergence of a bright leader in the left-centrist field could create a new political force in Russia.
Question: Left-centrists. Are they called social-democrats in Europe? Will you specify, please.
Answer: A European political school cannot be directly compared with what we have in Russia. Our problems are somewhat different, even though we have come close to Europe over the past ten years. Not only European social-liberals but also nationalist-minded intellectuals would fit into our left-centrist category. They are nationally oriented people who put global tasks before themselves. All this makes up the proverbial philosophical essence of Russia.
Question: So, a coalition will be formed in this large open left-centrist field, or will everyone play against each other? And which of them will win in this case?
Answer: I think Rossiya is a more interesting player in this field. But I suspect that rapid emergence of new players, largely unexpected to many, is quite possible. Gennady Seleznev, who is associated with communists, is too left-wing for an alliance with Mikhail Gorbachev, or with other rivals for that matter.
Question: Well, how many Russians identify themselves with right-liberal ideas?
Answer: About 15 percent. Apart from the Union of Right Forces (SPS) and a considerable part of the Yabloko electorate, these voters are either not engaged or gravitate towards dwarf parties. For instance, Liberal Russia takes about one percent of the votes.
Question: Is alliance of the SPS, Yabloko and Liberal Russia possible?
Answer: The SPS and Liberal Russia will be at loggerheads. An alliance of Yabloko and the SPS is impossible either, since it is unlikely that Grigory Yavlinsky and his closest associates would want to play second fiddle. And the SPS will never want to part with the first fiddle either. Besides, Yabloko is slowly drifting to the left. Without this electorate it will not be able to overcome the 5% barrier. Therefore a union with the right-wing SPS is clearly no good for Yabloko.
Question: If I understood it correctly, the remaining 10 percent of Russia's voters belong to the nationalistic electorate, don't they? If so, will they vote for Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party, as before?
Answer: So far, there are no ultra-nationalist parties that would be able to claim success at the elections. In actual fact, the number of nationalistic-minded people is far greater than 10 percent. But part of them are likely to vote communist, while others support the present authorities.