-----Mensagem original----- De: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]Em nome de Doug Henwood Enviada em: quinta-feira, 15 de agosto de 2002 16:06 Para: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Assunto: Re: RES: Three cheers for Brazil
Alexandre Fenelon wrote:
>The Economic Times
>
>Wednesday, August 14, 2002
>
>Three cheers for Brazil
>
>Joseph Stiglitz
>
>World markets seem to be turning up their nose at Brazil right now. They
may
>be as mistaken about Brazil as world football experts were earlier this
>summer.
>
>When the World Cup began, you will recall, the Brazilian team was deemed
>talented but flawed. Yet somehow Brazil again became the World Cup
champion.
>The country, too, may prove equally surprising and resilient.
>
>Indeed, in recent years, Brazil has created a vibrant democracy with a
>strong economy.
>
>-Yeah, but this "strong economy" is growing 2,5% an year while population
>-growth is 1,2%, and the growth rates are declining since 1999. The public
>-debt went from 30% to 60% of GDP despite massive privatizations.....
etc.
Thanks for this. I'm interviewing Stiglitz in about 2 hours (assuming he shows up), and I'll bring up your points.
Anyone have any questions for him? I'll be in email range only until about 4:15 NYC time, when I leave for the studio.
-Here are more informations. I hope it will help you -Brazilian economic growth 1995-98(since the Real plan) rounded to 0,5% 1995-4,5% 1996-2,5% 1997-3,5% 1998-0,5% 1999-1% 2000-4,5% 2001-1,5% 2002-0,5-1,5%(forecast)
-External debt 1994: US$148 billion (27% GDP) -External debt 1999: US$240 billion (31% GDP) -As our currency suffered further devaluation since 1999, the external debt -as % of nominal GDP increased (our GDP is now estimated in US$600 billion -currency devaluated by 50% since 1999), so external debt is around 40% of -GDP (this is not net debt) http://www.alanhenriques1.hpg.ig.com.br/brasil.html
-Ginni index stable from 1990 to 2002 (55-60 according to measurement method)
-Current account deficit around 4% from 1997-2002. External trade improving -(deficit 6 billion 1998, US$ 6 billion surplus forecasted for 2002) the -de nationalization of our economy (50% of industry in foreign hands) and -the resulting profits transferences, coupled with currency devaluation kept -the current account defict in the same levels (in % GDP).
Alexandre Fenelon