CARACAS, VENEZUELA -- ...Increasing pressure on Chavez to call an early vote, the White House said it wanted an electoral solution to the crisis and warned of more violence if sluggish negotiations do not pick up their pace....
Asked about early elections, Chavez said that he won't stand in the way of a constitutional amendment but said that was up to Congress, and voters in a referendum. The opposition has rejected such a drawn-out process, demanding immediate elections....
U.S. Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon flew to Caracas to meet with officials from all sides of the conflict.
<http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/3531502.html> *****
***** Copyright 2002 Financial Times Information Global News Wire Copyright 2002 EFE News Services (U.S.) Inc December 14, 2002 LENGTH: 423 words HEADLINE: VENEZUELA-CONFLICT (1ST LEAD) VENEZUELA REQUESTS SPECIAL MEETING OF OAS FOREIGN MINISTERS
BODY: Caracas, Dec 13 (EFE).- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Friday that his administration has asked for a special meeting of Organization of American States (OAS) foreign minister to denounce what the president labeled "another coup attempt."
"My government has requested an extraordinary meeting of OAS foreign ministers to denounce with evidence, videos (and) documents, the running roughshod over the Venezuelan people and another coup attempt," Chavez said in an impromptu press conference at the Miraflores presidential palace. Chavez said the "coup attempt has a military component, with the officers in Altamira Plaza calling for rebellion, and a political component, with leaders who publicly call (on the people) not to recognize the government and institutions."
The president also claimed that business and labor leaders and much of the privately owned media were involved in the alleged plot.
The announcement came on the 12th day of an opposition-sponsored national strike aimed at forcing Chavez to step down.
"He's cornered. He has no other choice but to leave immediately. His time is up," union leader and opposition spokesman Carlos Ortega said.
Ortega also called on opposition activists to be ready for the "great taking of Caracas," which he said will be "the largest demonstration Latin America has ever seen."
The "taking of Caracas," according to Ortega, will entail occupying the capital's streets and avenues and, perhaps, a subsequent march on the presidential residence.
A similar opposition march in April ended with a failed coup attempt that left 19 people dead and Chavez briefly ousted....
Earlier Friday, the United States called for early elections as a way to break the deadlock, which includes an opposition-sponsored general strike that began Dec. 2 and has crippled the nation's crucial oil industry. *****
***** Washington File 13 December 2002 State Department Briefing Transcript
(Iraq, Turkey, South Korea/North Korea, Axis of Evil, Iran, Russia, Israel/Palestinian, Venezuela, Germany) (6260)
State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher briefed.
...QUESTION: You all --
MR. BOUCHER: Sorry. Betsy.
QUESTION: You all have sent down, I believe, it's Mr. Shannon, Deputy --
MR. BOUCHER: Deputy Assistant Secretary, yeah, from the Bureau.
QUESTION: Can you say something about his trip, why he's there, who he is?
MR. BOUCHER: No. I'll get something for you. I'm sorry. I'll find out. Other than the fact that we sent him down to work with our Embassy and with the OAS and the others down there, I don't think I have anything to add. But I'll check on dates and things like that.
Jonathan.
QUESTION: Richard, for some time we've been trying to persuade you to say early elections and you kept --
MR. BOUCHER: I did.
QUESTION: -- just saying electoral solution.
MR. BOUCHER: Yeah.
QUESTION: What has changed to make you now say early elections?
MR. BOUCHER: I think our view is that the -- we want to do everything we can to support an effort, a strong effort, by the OAS. We think it's time to make clear that the crisis has gotten to the point where that the early elections, we believe, have to be part of the solution. How those elections get organized and the exact timetable, I think I would leave to the Venezuelans to decide the formula.
Elise.
QUESTION: Well, that was my question, but I have one more.
MR. BOUCHER: Okay.
QUESTION: Do you foresee a foreign ministerial meeting of the OAS? Has it reached the level where you think that the ministers of the region have to get together and take some kind of action?
MR. BOUCHER: This meeting today is at the permanent representative level. I don't know if there would be an OAS meeting of foreign ministers, but certainly foreign ministers from the OAS have been very involved in working on this matter. The Secretary discussed it yesterday with the Colombian Foreign Minister, as he did last week with the Colombian President and Foreign Minister. He has discussed it in his phone calls with Secretary General Gaviria, of course, but also Foreign Secretary Castaneda.
So it's an active subject of discussion among ministers of the hemisphere and I'm sure each of the permanent representatives getting together will be instructed by governments, as appropriate....
QUESTION: Richard, how is your call for early elections not interfering in the internal politics of Venezuela?
MR. BOUCHER: I think it's a matter that, at some point, you have to say what we think will solve the crisis. If you say that, you could have asked yesterday, how is your call for an electoral solution not interfering, and two weeks before that, how is your call for a democratic solution not interfering.
The fact is that we support democracy, and it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, and that we believe that challenges to democracy are best solved through democratic solutions. And an early election, we think, is the kind of solution that's needed....
QUESTION: Do you have any idea how many embassy non-emergency personnel and family members are leaving?
MR. BOUCHER: No, I don't. And I think we've never put out that kind of information. We have authorized departures that people are allowed to leave....
***** Frozen Venezuelan oil exports worsen Iraq war scenario Reuters, 12.13.02, 3:42 PM ET
By Richard Valdmanis
NEW YORK3 (Reuters) - The freeze in petroleum exports from strike-stricken Venezuela will leave global oil markets more vulnerable to supply cuts from Iraq in the event of a U.S.-led invasion, oil analysts said Friday.
Predictions are rampant that a U.S. military attack on Iraq, the world's eighth largest exporter, could send oil prices, at least briefly, to $40 a barrel or more.
Prolonged disruption to supplies from Venezuela, the No 5 world exporter, would add price pressure, energy experts add.
"A loss of both Iraqi and Venezuelan oil during the winter, a high point in the demand cycle, would be very bullish," said George Beranek, energy markets analyst at Petroleum Finance Corp. in Washington, D.C.
Crude oil prices Friday flirted with 7-week highs around $28.50 a barrel as a national strike in Venezuela led by foes of leftist President Hugo Chavez entered its 12th day.
The White House, worried about the Venezuelan oil drought at a time it is mulling military action against Iraq, urged Venezuela's feuding government and opposition Friday to negotiate an end to the strike. Venezuela supplies the U.S. with more than 13 percent of its oil imports.
"This visit shows the concern that we feel in Washington," U.S. envoy Thomas Shannon told reporters in Caracas.
TENSIONS HIGH
Tensions are high between Washington and Baghdad over Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction, while the United Nations pores over a lengthy arms declaration from the sanctioned country.
The White House has vowed to disarm oil-rich Iraq, which exports about 1.2 million barrels of oil per day.
Output from Venezuela and Iraq -- both members of the OPEC cartel -- cover roughly 7 percent of the world's more than 76 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil demand.
U.S. crude oil supplies are already running a thick 24.4 million barrel year-on-year deficit heading into typically high winter demand, according to data released this week by the American Petroleum Institute.
Venezuela also sends large volumes of refined products to the U.S., such as heating fuel and high-quality gasoline.
MIDDLE EAST FLOWS
A worst-case scenario would see conflict in Iraq widen to other big producers in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, upsetting supplies from a region that pumps a third of the world's oil.
"There is a strong swing in sentiment in the oil market that is based on, yes, the loss of crude from Venezuela in the short term, but also extrapolations of a lot of frightening hypothetical scenarios," said Tim Evans of IFR-Pegasus.
Adding to concerns, oil producer group OPEC has shown it is trying to further tighten the oil market, rather than ease it, by agreeing this week to a heavy cut in oil supplies by reducing rampant quota-busting.
The decision will amount to an output cut of 1.5 to 1.7 million bpd, according to OPEC ministers.
The cartel, which holds almost all the world's spare oil production capacity, would hold the key to keeping a lid on a potential price spike in the event of a double-hit loss of Venezuelan and Iraqi crude, analysts said.
"Just how high the price goes would depend on the OPEC response, both in its public statements and in its production adjustments," said George Beranek.
The United States has built up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its highest ever level. Department of Energy officials have said they may lend SPR oil to refineries that are suffering from a shortage of Venezuelan oil.
<http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/12/13/rtr823515.html> *****
***** The Washington Post December 12, 2002, Thursday, Final Edition SECTION: A SECTION; Pg. A30 LENGTH: 885 words HEADLINE: Envoy Says Venezuela Risks A Repeat of April's Violence BYLINE: Scott Wilson, Washington Post Foreign Service DATELINE: CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec. 11
BODY: A senior envoy mediating talks to resolve Venezuela's political standoff said today that President Hugo Chavez's refusal to recognize the gravity of a 10-day-old national strike against his government is impeding a settlement and raising the potential for violence.
Cesar Gaviria, secretary general of the Organization of American States and a former president of Colombia, said the Chavez government and the growing opposition movement have begun to focus on how to hold early presidential elections, aiming for the first three months of next year. But Gaviria suggested that unless an agreement is reached within a week, Venezuela risks a repeat of the political violence that shook the country in April, when Chavez was briefly removed in a military-led coup d'etat.
Gaviria called on both sides to move quickly toward early elections. But he appeared to place much of the onus for doing so on Chavez, who has called the strike a media-created fiction to destabilize his four-year-old government. "They [the government] say there is no strike," Gaviria told foreign reporters. "They say everyone is working. That what we have is sabotage in the oil industry, and because of such different views of reality, it is very difficult to have an agreement.
"I think both sides have to negotiate soon, in the next few days, or we will find increasing demands by the opposition, and that may take Venezuela to a confrontation with a high risk of violence."... ***** -- Yoshie
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