Joanna
>Venezuela crisis may hit U.S. Iraq war plans
>By Pascal Fletcher
>
>CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Venezuela's oil strike, which has
>cut off over 13 percent of U.S. petroleum imports, may force Washington to
>hold back from launching a war against Iraq until the crisis in the South
>American oil producer is resolved, a Venezuelan energy expert said Monday.
>
>Humberto Calderon Berti, a former Energy Minister, said he believed it
>would be too risky for the United States to move against Baghdad at a time
>when the turmoil in the world's No. 5 oil exporter was choking off key
>shipments to the U.S. market.
>
>Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez, who survived a brief coup in
>April and is resisting intense pressure to resign, is fighting to beat the
>two-week-old opposition strike that has cut oil output to less than a
>third and brought exports to a virtual standstill.
>
>"I believe the United States won't make any war decision against Iraq
>until the situation in Venezuela is resolved," Calderon, who has also
>served as president of the giant Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA, told
>Reuters in an interview.
>
>"It looks to me very difficult to be able to press ahead with a military
>initiative in Iraq when you have Venezuela going through a situation of
>immense instability," he added.
>
>Talks between the government and opposition representatives, brokered by
>the Organization of American States, have so far failed to reach an accord
>on an electoral solution to the Venezuela crisis.
>
>Calderon said a full-scale U.S. war against Iraq, if it was launched while
>the crisis in Caracas was still halting Venezuelan shipments, could mean
>at least five-and-a-half million barrels of oil per day being cut off from
>the market.
>
>Venezuela has a total output capacity of more than three million barrels
>per day (bpd) and Iraq, the world's eighth largest exporter, sells about
>1.2 million bpd to international markets.
>
>Between them, the two OPEC members cover roughly 7 percent of the world's
>more than 76 million bpd of crude oil demand.
>
>This could also push oil prices skywards to as high as $40 a barrel,
>pressuring the U.S. and world economy. "We'll be heading for a tremendous
>crisis,' Calderon said.
>
>Pushed to two-month highs by the Venezuelan oil drought, U.S. crude oil
>futures settled Monday at $30.10 a barrel, up $1.66 or 5.8 percent.
>
>The conflict in Iraq also risked dragging in other big producers in the
>Middle East, disrupting supplies from a region that produces a third of
>the world's oil.
>
>'CHANGE IN U.S. ATTITUDE'
>
>Calderon said there had been a "change in attitude" by U.S. President
>George W. Bush's administration towards Venezuela's crisis, from a more
>neutral U.S. position a few weeks ago to a public call on Friday for early
>elections to solve the conflict. [Yoshie: Washington has since been
>forced to backtrack from that position, however.]
>
>"It is very important for them to understand that the presence of Chavez
>in Venezuela is destabilizing," he added.
>
>Opponents of Chavez, who was elected in 1998 promising to carry out a
>"revolution" to help the poor, accuse him of ruining the economy and
>dragging Venezuela towards Cuba-style communism. They also say he has
>weakened the country's traditional alliance with the United States by
>forging closer ties with anti-U.S. states like Libya, Iran and Iraq.
>
>"There has never been an oil industry strike in Venezuela like the one we
>have now ... and while Chavez remains in power, this will be a recurring
>event," Calderon said.
>
>A U.S. diplomatic envoy, Thomas Shannon, visited Caracas at the end of
>last week and urged both Chavez's government and the opposition to reach a
>negotiated political deal on elections.
>
>Shannon said Washington was very worried about a possible escalation of
>the political confrontation in Venezuela but denied that his visit was
>directly linked to U.S. plans to launch a possible strike against Iraq.
>
>Former paratrooper Chavez, who says the strike is an attempt by his foes
>to overthrow him again, has deployed troops to try to move strike-bound
>tankers and restart idled refineries and oil loading terminals. He has
>also said he will bring in foreign oil experts if necessary to beat the strike.
>
>The Venezuelan oil strikers, who include PDVSA executives, tanker
>captains, navigation pilots and refinery and port terminal operators, have
>said they will stay out until the Venezuelan leader agrees to quit and
>hold early elections....
>
><http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N16375901> *****
>
>***** Tuesday, 17 December, 2002, 14:43 GMT
>Venezuela crisis 'may affect US war plans'
>Strikes have severely disrupted Venezuelan oil supplies
>
>By Andrew Walker
>BBC World Service business correspondent
>
>The continuing strike in the Venezuelan oil industry could have an impact
>on preparations for a US war in Iraq.
>
>Humberto Calderon Berti, a former Energy Minster and senior official of
>Venezuela's state oil firm, has said he does not think the US will make a
>decision to proceed until the crisis in his country is resolved.
>
>Venezuela accounts for about 13% of US oil imports - and foreign supplies
>are about half of the US' total needs.
>
>Venezuela's oil industry has been severely affected by a political strike.
>
>Oil refinery managers and oil tanker captains have joining a strike led by
>right-wing business groups, and more than 40 oil tankers are reportedly
>anchored off Venezuelan ports waiting to take on oil shipments.
>
>Looking further afield
>
>Venezuela is the world's fifth largest oil exporter.
>
>So the loss of Venezuelan supplies would be disruptive at the best of times.
>
>The main alternative source is the Middle East, which has two major drawbacks.
>
>Shipping oil from the Gulf to the US takes much longer, up to 60 days
>altogether.
>
>And in any case, a war in the region could disrupt supplies from the Gulf
>as well.
>
>Iraq's relatively modest current supplies would be likely to stop altogether.
>
>Stock building
>
>Other countries too could be affected especially if their oil
>installations were attacked by Iraqi missiles.
>
>The combined impact of the war risk and the strike in Venezuela has pushed
>the price of crude oil higher.
>
>Some grades of oil have been trading in New York at more than $30 a barrel.
>
>And it is likely that if and when the conflict begins, oil prices will
>rise further still.
>
>The US does have a large strategic reserve it can draw on and has recently
>been adding to it as an insurance against war-related disruptions.
>
>The US administration could almost certainly go to war at a time when both
>Venezuela and Middle Eastern supplies were unreliable.
>
>But it would surely prefer not to.
>
><http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2584167.stm> *****