China and North Korea
Report from the icy frontier
Dec 5th 2002 | TUMEN, YANBIAN PREFECTURE
>From The Economist print edition
Why the Chinese will not destabilise their troublesome neighbour
IN A few days' time, the ice on the Tumen River dividing China from North Korea will thicken into a hard crust. For starving inhabitants of North Korea, this would normally be a good time to start making preparations to escape. A few easy steps across the poorly guarded and frozen border and they would have a chance of finding work that could fill their stomachs. But, fearful that the flow of migrants could become a torrent, China is no longer turning a blind eye to the refugees who once easily blended into the large community of ethnic Koreans on its side of the narrow river. As the world wonders how to respond to North Korea's admission that it is enriching uranium (which can then be used to make nuclear weapons), China's worries about refugees act as a brake on any plan that might destabilise its neighbour. From China's point of view, it is better to preserve North Korea's few remaining economic lifelines than risk nudging Kim Jong Il's regime towards an implosion that could send millions pouring across the Chinese border. Perhaps even worse, as China sees it, the vacuum created by such a collapse might draw American troops and their South Korean allies into a disintegrating North Korea, right up to its border with China. Better to maintain the status quo than bring China's biggest potential enemy to its doorstep.
http://www.economist.com/World/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1480413