----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Pollak" <mpollak at panix.com> To: <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Sent: Saturday, December 28, 2002 8:57 PM Subject: Venezuelan strike beginning to fail
>
> [The reporter cited below has been unrelenting in his support of the
> Chavez opposition and has reported its claims and hopes uncritically ever
> since Chavez was elected. Since this is the first time he has ever
> deviated from their line, the fact that even he now thinks the strike is
> failing seems significant. It suggests the evidence is inescapable.]
>
> [Since most Venezuelan oil is exported and used to finance imports, the
> strike seems to be disproportionately hurting the richer portion of the
> population that uses imported goods. And to hurt the US, which imports
> 15% of its oil from there. That would seem to bode well for Chavez
> supporters over the long haul. The longer it goes on, the more the
> opposition will be hurting itself. And if Chavez has secure control of
> the army -- and the consensus seems to be that he does -- then there won't
> be a coup, and they can't take power that way. Lastly, if the situation
> goes on, it will make war in Iraq much more difficult as well.]
>
> [Just a footnote -- the oft-cited statistic that 60% of Venezuelans are
> opposed to Chavez and 30% support him is based on phone polls, afaict.
> But the telephone density in Venezuela is less than 12 mainlines per 100
> inhabitants (as opposed to 70 per 100 inhabitants in the US). So what
> those figures really mean is that even among the richest minority of the
> Venezuelan population, the opposition only has 60% support. And both
> sides agree that Chavez's support is overwhelming among the poorer
> portion. All of this goes some way towards explaining why the opposition
> is so intent on provoking a coup rather than waiting until August to hold
> a recall election, which Chavez already agreed to: because they don't
> think they could win it.]
>
> [Oh, and one last piece of good news: Otto Reich is out! Richard Lugar,
> who is in line to be the head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
> now that Jesse Helms is retiring, hated Reich and was not alone. Reich
> was made as a recess appointment in January precisely because the Bush
> administration thought there wouldn't be enough votes to confirm him.
> Well, such appointments only last until they can be reconfirmed. And
> Reich isn't going to be. There aren't enough votes even among
> Republicans. The next Deputy Secretary of State for Latin America can
> literally only be better. And this should also diminish the odds of a
> successful coup.]
>
> Financial Times; Dec 24, 2002
>
> WORLD NEWS: Chávez defies his opponents and remains on top of crisis
>
> By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas
>
> Soldiers loyal to Hugo Chávez distributed cornmeal in Caracas yesterday.
> By ensuring that Venezuelans have the chief ingredient of hallacas, the
> country's traditional Christmas meal, Venezuela's president showed that he
> knows how to keep his supporters on side.
>
> It also illustrates a stark new reality in the country. The hopes of
> opponents of Mr Chávez - that their stand-off with his government would
> end in his departure or, at least, in fresh elections - are receding.
>
> As a crippling strike by opposition-aligned managers at Petróleos de
> Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, enters its fourth week
> today, shipments from the world's fifth-largest exporter have reduced to a
> trickle.
>
> Yet even as domestic fuel supplies become extremely scarce, Mr Chávez is
> as defiant as ever.
>
> "Christmas without Chávez, they thought. No chance," he said at the
> weekend, basking in his political resilience on Aló, Presidente, his
> weekly television programme. "Chávez has not gone, neither is he going."
>
> When the strike began, few observers expected it to last very long. In
> April, it took less than a week before a strike by businesses, unions and
> PDVSA managers led to a military-backed coup that ousted Mr Chávez for 48
> hours.
>
> The odds seem stacked against the president. Recent polls suggest that at
> least 60 per cent of Venezuelans - poor as well as rich - oppose his rule.
> But Mr Chávez retains strong support among the 30 per cent of the
> population who are fiercely loyal to a man they regard as a boy from the
> barrio made good.
>
> More critically, Mr Chávez has managed to keep the military on his side,
> largely because since April he has purged it of senior officers who might
> launch a coup against him, or at least placed perceived loyalists in
> command of key army garrisons.
>
> Retaining control of the armed forces has enabled Mr Chávez to keep petrol
> supplies flowing to the domestic market - albeit at a trickle. This week,
> oil workers and crew loyal to the government seized the Pilín León, a
> strike-bound tanker, releasing 280,000 barrels of petrol on to the market.
>
> Coupled with modest imports from Latin American neighbours, it is a
> strategy Mr Chávez could use again to ensure that the petrol supplies
> within Venezuela never completely run out.
>
> The result is that Mr Chávez is on top of the crisis, even if the
> situation remains dire and could deteriorate further. There are signs that
> public support for the strike is starting to slip, as ordinary Venezuelans
> become increasingly frustrated at the disrupting effect it is having on
> their daily lives.
>
> But waning support is not likely to bring the strike to an end. "Both
> Chávez and the opposition have not been rational in dealing with this
> crisis," says Miguel Diaz, director of the South America Project at the
> Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The debate is being
> driven by the extremists on both sides."
>
> So there are few signs that Venezuela's crisis will be resolved speedily.
> But having displayed his formidable political will in the face of a strong
> and determined domestic opposition and international pressure, it seems
> unlikely that Mr Chávez will go quietly.
>