[The reporter cited below has been unrelenting in his support of the Chavez opposition and has reported its claims and hopes uncritically ever since Chavez was elected. Since this is the first time he has ever deviated from their line, the fact that even he now thinks the strike is failing seems significant. It suggests the evidence is inescapable.]
[Since most Venezuelan oil is exported and used to finance imports, the strike seems to be disproportionately hurting the richer portion of the population that uses imported goods. And to hurt the US, which imports 15% of its oil from there. That would seem to bode well for Chavez supporters over the long haul. The longer it goes on, the more the opposition will be hurting itself. And if Chavez has secure control of the army -- and the consensus seems to be that he does -- then there won't be a coup, and they can't take power that way. Lastly, if the situation goes on, it will make war in Iraq much more difficult as well.]
[Just a footnote -- the oft-cited statistic that 60% of Venezuelans are opposed to Chavez and 30% support him is based on phone polls, afaict. But the telephone density in Venezuela is less than 12 mainlines per 100 inhabitants (as opposed to 70 per 100 inhabitants in the US). So what those figures really mean is that even among the richest minority of the Venezuelan population, the opposition only has 60% support. And both sides agree that Chavez's support is overwhelming among the poorer portion. All of this goes some way towards explaining why the opposition is so intent on provoking a coup rather than waiting until August to hold a recall election, which Chavez already agreed to: because they don't think they could win it.]
[Oh, and one last piece of good news: Otto Reich is out! Richard Lugar, who is in line to be the head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations now that Jesse Helms is retiring, hated Reich and was not alone. Reich was made as a recess appointment in January precisely because the Bush administration thought there wouldn't be enough votes to confirm him. Well, such appointments only last until they can be reconfirmed. And Reich isn't going to be. There aren't enough votes even among Republicans. The next Deputy Secretary of State for Latin America can literally only be better. And this should also diminish the odds of a successful coup.]
Financial Times; Dec 24, 2002
WORLD NEWS: Chávez defies his opponents and remains on top of crisis
By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas
Soldiers loyal to Hugo Chávez distributed cornmeal in Caracas yesterday. By ensuring that Venezuelans have the chief ingredient of hallacas, the country's traditional Christmas meal, Venezuela's president showed that he knows how to keep his supporters on side.
It also illustrates a stark new reality in the country. The hopes of opponents of Mr Chávez - that their stand-off with his government would end in his departure or, at least, in fresh elections - are receding.
As a crippling strike by opposition-aligned managers at Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, enters its fourth week today, shipments from the world's fifth-largest exporter have reduced to a trickle.
Yet even as domestic fuel supplies become extremely scarce, Mr Chávez is as defiant as ever.
"Christmas without Chávez, they thought. No chance," he said at the weekend, basking in his political resilience on Aló, Presidente, his weekly television programme. "Chávez has not gone, neither is he going."
When the strike began, few observers expected it to last very long. In April, it took less than a week before a strike by businesses, unions and PDVSA managers led to a military-backed coup that ousted Mr Chávez for 48 hours.
The odds seem stacked against the president. Recent polls suggest that at least 60 per cent of Venezuelans - poor as well as rich - oppose his rule. But Mr Chávez retains strong support among the 30 per cent of the population who are fiercely loyal to a man they regard as a boy from the barrio made good.
More critically, Mr Chávez has managed to keep the military on his side, largely because since April he has purged it of senior officers who might launch a coup against him, or at least placed perceived loyalists in command of key army garrisons.
Retaining control of the armed forces has enabled Mr Chávez to keep petrol supplies flowing to the domestic market - albeit at a trickle. This week, oil workers and crew loyal to the government seized the Pilín León, a strike-bound tanker, releasing 280,000 barrels of petrol on to the market.
Coupled with modest imports from Latin American neighbours, it is a strategy Mr Chávez could use again to ensure that the petrol supplies within Venezuela never completely run out.
The result is that Mr Chávez is on top of the crisis, even if the situation remains dire and could deteriorate further. There are signs that public support for the strike is starting to slip, as ordinary Venezuelans become increasingly frustrated at the disrupting effect it is having on their daily lives.
But waning support is not likely to bring the strike to an end. "Both Chávez and the opposition have not been rational in dealing with this crisis," says Miguel Diaz, director of the South America Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The debate is being driven by the extremists on both sides."
So there are few signs that Venezuela's crisis will be resolved speedily. But having displayed his formidable political will in the face of a strong and determined domestic opposition and international pressure, it seems unlikely that Mr Chávez will go quietly.