CHRIS B: I agree but I would say that this is already happening. Blair always had a large measure of calcuation under his sycophancy. The latest press reports are clearly coordinated by Campbell, including the astonishing "megaphone" criticism by the EU's commissioner for foreign affairs (if I have despite haste got the title right) - Chris Patten.
And the highly authoritative report given to the Observer. A "source close to the Prime Minister" means the Prime Minister!
GREG: Yes I think you are right on this the process is already under way, how far it might go is harder to estimate. The dismantling of NATO would be good (it must be pretty shaky at the moment), but I hold no expectation that it will happen soon, timidity seems too widespread for decisive action.
The contradictions are all there but the network of world power is still relatively strong and so more tradegy is on the cards.
Australia holds a vital strategic position in this that is usually overlooked, so I thought I wold draw some attention to it. Australia though having few US bases and very few US personnel on its soil is nonetheless America's largest aircraft carrier. So long as the US controls Australia the whole of Asia is cast in its shadow and the caravan route for oil is protected. To this point Australia's governments are much more directly controlled by the US then perhaps anywhere else (the coup in 1975 being a glitch that was soon overcome by direct interventions in the two major political parties and the vetting of leaders).
Australia will happily jump on the band wagon of the Axis of Evil, or anything else the American's dream-up. However, I do not think we would happily sustain many causualities or attacks on our own soil. The gamble thus seems very high from the US point of view. Its unilateralism is bound to distance Europe and the UK, however, even if it works well a relatively minor problem, Australian casualities, could blow a huge hole in its supremacy. If Australia steps out again (as we did in 1972) US world supremecy from a military point of view is heavily compromised, moreso then if NATO dissolved itself.
It would not take much for the Australian population to change its pro-American attitudes, there is a high level of cyncism to begin with and antiAmericanism is just below the surface. The more Bush plays to the domestic crowd the less convincing any outside America of his war chant - the Axis of Evil has not and cannot be taken seriously here yet we have already committed troops and Perth and Darwin acts as an occassional R&R safe area (which sets up all soughts of social contradictions multiplied in these tiny cities by the length and frequency of the visits).
Each such moves places more stress on what is after all a small nation. In the Vietnam War such treatment lead directly to breaking with the US alliance (1972) and a politically devasting US coup which followed (1975). I believe the US is blithely ignorant that Australian support for it is, in fact, a finite resource easily consumed, something that takes a long time to foster and is used up rapidly under pressure.
It would not suprise me if this has been entirely overlooked in the bellicose atmosphere of the White House, the rather dismissive reception given to our PM "Honest"(ie never believe him) John Howard symbolises our status, but perhaps not how essential we are (past Presidents always went out of their way to make Australian Prime Ministers seem important).
I only throw this in as a negelected down-under connection in the US empire. Little Australia is in fact the lock on Asia and has been since 1788 and Asia happens to be the American front door to the oil fields. So long as Australia is securely tied to the US its back is guarded for whatever happens in its interventions in the Persian Gulf.
Take Australia out of the picture and the entire US presence in the Indian Ocean is restricted to a handful of tiny islands, much of the Eastern Pacific is exposed and the American Empire has shrunk strategically by a significant factor (very much like its position in 1940). The US position in the Middle East become far distant outposts and the influence of Europe is greatly increased.
>From this point of view the UK and Europe appear largely irrelevant, the fact they they are being treated so is bad judgement but it at least has this logic. Likewise treating Australia like a mere state within the USA reflects its status but also something of its level of control as well.
Bush would seem exceptional in being so transparent that he makes the actual relations of international power more and more obvious, one could also argue that it is a by-product of the simplification of these relations which in their decline reveal more and more of the supporting skeleton which was once hidden by the layers of living flesh that have now wasted away.
Greg Schofield Perth Australia g_schofield at dingoblue.net.au _______________________________________________ _______________________________________________
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