----- Original Message ----- From: "Doug Henwood" <dhenwood at panix.com> To: "lbo-talk" <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 6:54 PM Subject: US economy turning?
> [The bourgie consensus is now that the U.S. economy is bottoming, or
> has already bottomed, and is about to turn up, perhaps strongly. The
> leftie consensus is that it's only begun worsening. Hmmm.]
>
> Wall Street Journal - January 3, 2002
>
> Manufacturing Sector Shows Signs of Life
> In Latest Indication of Economic Upturn
>
> By GREG IP
> Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
===============
Maybe it's because I used to be in logistics so I'm biased, but if the trucking and multimodal freight sectors are dour or nervous things would be rough for a while. Here's the American Trucking Association's take:
Updated on 12/28/2001 - 11:45:00 AM EST Indicators Point to Happy New Year for Trucking
The trucking industry received more positive news Friday as two of three major industry reports were released, indicating that the nearly nine-month recession may soon break.
Consumer confidence and home resales showed positive returns, while the National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago index remained below the break-even point even while showing some signs of improvement.
The Conference Board's index of consumer attitudes jumped to 93.7 in December from 84.9 the previous month, indicating that a growing number of Americans feel that the worst of the recession is over and that a recovery may soon be on the way.
The increase was the first since June, the report said.
Increased consumer confidence is a positive sign for the trucking industry, which relies on consumer spending and factory orders for much of its business.
The National Association of Realtors said that sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose 0.6% for the month of November. The increase in home resales pushed the annual rate to 5.21 million homes.
Increased home resales can boost demand for dry van freight trucking services as consumers relocated and will possibly purchase new goods such as appliances and furniture for their new homes.
Analysts feel that continued low interest rates have made home ownership more attractive, leading to an increase in home resales, Bloomberg said. Prior to the release of the data, many observers projected a 0.2% decline in resales.
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago's factory index, which measures factory activity in the Midwest, rose slightly to 41.4 from 41.1.
However, for the 15th consecutive month, the index was below 50, the level which indicates break even - figures below 50 signal contraction in the region, above 50, growth. Analysts said that while the figure for December did stay below 50, its slight improvement was a good sign, Bloomberg stated.
The rise of 0.3 was well below what analysts had projected for the index, Bloomberg said. Most observers were expecting a rise to 45 in the NAPM-Chicago figure.
Manufacturing output can spur growth for the trucking industry, so it is important to monitor developments in the sector.
By Sean McNally Staff Reporter
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